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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - May 10

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (8) Charge the Castle comes off an Amoss claim and should be tough to beat at this level. (10) Equate looks dangerous at this level. (3) Brother Rice may shine on dirt. (6) Thanks Frank may wake up here. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-8-10. Doubles: 3-6-8-10 with 1-7-10-11.

2nd race – (7) Daisy Duke is an interesting firster from Casse who gets the nod here. (10) Baytown Cleopatra switches to Gaffalione and is worth a look. (11) Aoraki could be a factor in her debut. (1) Tiffany will benefit from a rail trip. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-10-11.

4th race – (3) No Map Needed debuts for Amoss and seems primed for a solid effort. (6) Sharper Gal was second last time and should be the main threat. (8) Morning Miracle returns to dirt in this spot. (1) Xrta Extraordinary is dangerous off the class drop. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place.  Exacta box: 1-3-6-8.

6th race – (3) Candy for Carmel (B) was claimed after finishing second and looks best in this field. (2) Kahala finished fourth in the same race and was claimed by Maker. (9) All West was third in that race and debuts for Atras. (6) Mobster Gun should appreciate a return to dirt. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place.  Exacta box: 2-3-6-9..

8th race – (9) Grecian Goddess flopped in a graded stakes but fits better here. (5) Gold Lightning looks like the one to fear. (4) Lady Helena had a rough trip last time and can move forward here. (7) Ragtime Lady should be closing quickly at the end. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-7-9.

No.Letter/Last raceToday’s race  Comment     
  (3)Candy for CarmelB, 4/176 CDWas a game second last time