Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
Race #9 - Rating
#13 Poetic Charm - Minimum odds 3/2
#5 Cool Beans - Minimum odds 4/1
#4 Mighty Scarlett - Minimum odds 4/1
#3 Daddy Is a Legend - Minimum odds 4/1
If the race stays on grass and if Poetic Charm runs, she is very likely to win. She ships in from France off a win against older and moves back to her own age group. She finished 2nd in a group 3 race before that, which is a higher class level than grade 3 stakes (like this one) in the U.S. and she was 5th of 16 but beaten just a length and one-half in a terrace race prior to that. She adds Lasix and Mike Smith comes in from California to ride. Trainer Appleby is fantastic in two continents as over the last five years he has won with THREE of SIX horses coming over from Europe, with another finishing 2nd, and ALL were in graded stakes.
Cool Beans is the one Poetic Charm had to run down late to win as she appears to be the "lone frontrunner" in the field. She led from start to finish at Saratoga in her most recent race to earn a strong 103 Equibase Speed Figure as good as Poetic Charm earned when second in the stakes in France on 8/15 and as good as Daddy Is a Legend earned when winning the Lake George Stakes at Saratoga in July. She was entered to run in the Pebbles Stake in New York, where trainer Cox based her, but chose this spot instead and the #1 winning jockey for the barn, Florent Geroux rides her.
Mighty Scarlett is one of two trained by Chad Brown, currently #2 in North America this year in earnings. She ran the best race of her career when last seen on 9/2, rallying between runners late to go from 4th to 1st in the final stages under Jose Ortiz, who rides back and who is the #1 jockey in North America. The 106 figure earned is the best figure any horse in the race earned in their most recent start and Brown does very well going from allowance winner to stakes, with a 5 for 21 record and another five runner-up finishes in the past two years so Mighty Scarlett is another gal to be reckoned with.
Daddy Is a Legend may not have cared for the soft turf in her most recent race when 4th in the Lake Placid after winning the Lake George, or just the fact the phenomenal Rushing Fall was in the race was the reason she could only manage third. Runner-up Capla Temptress ran poorly to Rushing Fall this past weekend when she won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes but Daddy is Legend can be competitive if she repeats her Lake George effort, which came at this distance.
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