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Expert Picks

Kim Nelson

Kim Nelson has worked with horses all her life. She rode hunter jumpers as a child and teenager. She then moved on to work for North Ridge Farm learning the basics with mares, foals and yearlings. She has worked through the years for Carl Nafzger, Adena Springs, The Daily Racing Form and Marylou Whitney Stables. Keeneland has always been the home track for Kim and this will be her 10 year anniversary handicapping the spring and fall meets.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Late Pick 4 for $.50

Race 7
#3, 9, 11
Race 8
#4, 6, 7
Race 9
#3, 4, 10
Race 10
#8, 10, 11
Cost $40. 50

1st Race

#2 East Moon appears to be the one to beat here. Exits a key race and should be extremely sharp for her 2nd start off the layoff. #3 Urban Insight has a solid work tab preparing for her return. Clocker comments she flew home in her last work. #1 Belleinthecity is another that is making her 2nd off the layoff and should improve off her last effort.
Top Picks #2, 3, 1

2nd Race

#7 Civil is a first time gelding and adds blinkers for his first off the claim. He has hit the board in all 3 of his races this year and got to give him a look in this one. #6 Gambler's Choice drops for half of last start and should appreciate the class relief. #12 Gasaway has some early speed and lands in a soft spot with Hernandez in the saddle.
Top Picks #7, 6, 12

3rd Race

#1 Preamble should have the early speed to take advantage of his inside post. Sharp work suggest he can take this short field gate to wire. #6 Spectacular Gem also has a sharp work preparing for this start. Looks like he can chase Preamble and hold on for part. #3 Bingwa from the Ward barn was an easy winner first out. Barn has strong win percentages with this type.
Top Picks #1, 6, 3

4th Race

#9 Soglio has the recent form and Beyer numbers to deserve the 8-5 morning line. Landed a close 3rd with Grade 3 company last out. #6 High Promise is a consistent performer on the grass going long. This is his 3rd off layoff and comes off a nice win over the Belmont lawn. #3 Compass Zone has proven he is competitive on the grass and has the Beyer numbers to catch the eye. He has won over the Keeneland turf and could prove dangerous.
Top Picks #9, 6, 3

5th Race

#5 Hush Y'all has an excellent work tab preparing for her debut effort. She comes over with the Cox barn which wins at a 24% rate with first time starters. Geroux lands here and like her chances. #9 Katie's Bayou has a couple of starts under her belt and drops in for a tag for the first time. The experience should prove beneficial and she has the early foot to be effective on the track. #7 Miz Nightcap is another firster that could round out the exotics.
Top Picks # 5, 9, 7

6th Race

#2 Hymn to Inanna is a 2 time winner in 4 career starts. She has early foot and lands in a good spot for another win. #5 No Cacha Na drops her price after her last 2 performances. Form suggest she is capable at this level and like that Graham returns to the saddle. #9 As Fast As You Can came up short in her first off layoff last time and should improve off that one.
Top Picks #2, 5, 9

7th Race

#11 La Dame Blanche backs up off her last and is back to the distance she posted her only win. She should be fit off her last going 2 turns and expect Landeros to get her out of the gates to overcome the outside draw. #9 Pocket Book has the early foot and recent works to suggest she is ready to fire. #3 Focused making her 3rd off the layoff is the closer that can pass the tiring horses and land a share.
Top Picks #11, 9, 3

8th Race

#7 True Dream exits Graded Stakes company where she closed a lot of ground to be beaten only 3 1/2 lengths for all of it. The was her first back off a short freshening and expect her to be very tough in this spot. #4 Auspicious Babe posted her best Beyer Speed figure last out. The lightly raced filly surely appreciated the class relief and may bring some confidence in to this one. #6 Jump Ruler has the early foot to show the way.
Top Picks #7, 4, 6

9th Race

#4 Mighty Scarlett has missed the board only once and that was with Grade 1 company. The lightly raced filly comes off a nice win at Saratoga and looks ready to take her place as another Graded Stakes winner in the Brown barn. #3 Daddy Is a Legend comes in fresh after a tough spring/summer campaign where she was very competitive with Graded company. Winner over this course and at the distance. #10 High Tech is in good form right now and hoping she can boost the exotics as she did in her last.
Top Picks #4, 3, 10

10th Race

#8 Locally Owned turned in a very professional debut effort finishing 2nd after breaking from the outside post. She brings a nice Beyer number for this field. #10 Synthesis in back with Maiden company after a couple of unsuccessful tried with Graded Company. He has the experience edge and could be dangerous with these. #11 Sharp Prospect ran well enough in her first start to expect a place on the board here.
Top Picks #8, 10, 11

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