Keeneland Select

Aqueduct Hotlist - November 16

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A:
A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5th race [OC 50k/N1X, 1 mi] – (5) Sedona (A) tried to rally wide on a track that was favoring inside speed and finished third as the favorite. (6) Bells Beach was an impressive winner of a maiden special weight at Keeneland in the spring before trying a stakes race in June for Chad Brown. (4) I’m Buzzy was second in a similar spot in September. (1) Save Us Melania has two open length victories in a row moving from a maiden claimer to a starter allowance.

6th race [NY, Alw 80000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Amplitude (A) bobbled a bit at the start of his second race and drew off to break his maiden. (3) Slapintheface missed finishing in the top three only once in nine starts with five seconds. (4) Miztertonic is a deep closer who is likely to finish in the vertical exotics. (5) Miracle Mike has a few recent races that make him a serious contender in this field.

8th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (5) Starlight Dancer (A) now has three consecutive second-place finishes. Last time she broke on top, set a very fast early pace, and managed to hang on for the place spot. (1) Autumn has six top three finishes from 11 starts and may have found the right field in which she could win. (2) Just One More has been off since her debut in April at 9-1 where she had to steady in the stretch. She will come back without the blinkers. (3) Alittlebitnaughty fits well in this field.

9th race [Central Park, 1 mi TURF] – (9) Early Adopter (A) had to check at the eighth pole during his stretch rally and still finished third in a Grade 2 race. (10) Super Swift broke his maiden at first asking and then ran second going from dirt to turf in the Atlantic Beach at Aqueduct. (8) Smooth Breeze also got a debut victory and then moved to a stakes where he was fourth in the Pilgrim (G2) behind two horses that ran in the Breeders’ Cup. (4) Jack and Jim won his first race at 3-1 with a late rally against NY-breds.

Best bets:  Sedona (5th); Amplitude (6th). Best value: Starlight Dancer (8th); Early Adopter (9th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 7-9 and includes the Central Park, 3 with 1, 2, 3, 5 with 4, 8, 9, 10 = $16.

No.NameLetter
last race
Today's RaceComments
(5)SedonaA on 9/225Raced against a track bias and finished third.
(7)AmplitudeA on 9/266Overcame a poor start to break his maiden.
(5)Starlight DancerA on 10/138Ran second despite setting a very fast pace.
(9)Early AdopterA on 9/289Checked during his stretch rally and ran third.