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Keeneland Select Pick Of The Day | August 1, 2020

July 31, 2020

Race 10 at Del Mar | Saturday, August 1 | Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern / 6:30 PM Pacific 

Bing Crosby Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $250,000 | Six Furlongs | Three Year Olds and Upward

There is little doubt Anyportinastorm (2) will be in front from the start as he usually is. Winner of eight races from 16 starts, Anyportinastorm has won his last four races at six to six and one-half furlongs, the last three while leading from the start. His one defeat in the last year came when second at a mile. Having earned 118 and 114 Equibase figures in his last two wins, the latter in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes on July 4, Anyportinastorm stacks up fantastically well with likely betting favorite McKinzie, who earned 117 and 114 figures in his last two races. Better still, the 114 figure Anyportinastorm earned in the Oak Tree Sprint is the same figure last year’s Bing Crosby Stakes winner (Cistron) earned. Jockey Juan Hernandez, a top jockey in Northern California for years, shifted his tack to Del Mar starting this summer and has done well, but more importantly he’s very familiar with Anyportinastorm, having ridden the horse to six wins in 13 races. With two local workouts at Del Mar to get used to the surface he’s running over for the first time, and with blistering early speed, Anyportinastorm can add his first graded stakes win to his resume in this year’s Bing Crosby Stakes.

Wildman Jack (8) is a lightly raced four year old who has only run on turf. Amassing a strong record of four wins in nine tries, Wildman Jack ran his best race ever in May, one race before last, when winning the Daytona Stakes with a 115 figure effort. In that race, Wildman Jack rallied from fourth to get up by a nose and so if Anyportinastorm gets pace pressure or just can’t lead from start to finish it appears likely Wildman Jack can get the job done. I have no qualms about his ability to run as well on dirt because his most recent workout at Del Mar on July 26 was the best of 107 on the day for four furlongs. Additionally, his sire, Goldencents, won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and was second in the 2014 Bing Crosby. 

Desert Law (3) returned from 11 months on the sidelines in June and rallied for third in the Thor’s Echo Stakes with a 107 figure. So now he’s making his second start off a layoff and last year when he won the Thor’s Echo Stakes with a 119 figure which is one of the best in the field. Following his win last year in the Thor’s Echo¸ Desert Law finished second, beaten just a half-length, in the Bing Crosby with a 113 figure. The pattern for improvement second off the layoff is easily identifiable and so Desert Lawdeserves strong consideration as a contender to win this race.

McKinzie (4) (who may scratch) will very likely to go post as the betting favorite if he runs as he has in his last 10 races. Noting he has only won three of those races, it is tough to consider a win bet at low odds in my opinion. Additionally, McKinzie has never raced at this six furlong distance in 17 starts, beginning his career at seven furlongs and running that distance or more in every race. Last month in the Metropolitan Handicap, McKinzie disappointed badly when fifth as the favorite. Prior to that, he won the Triple Bend Stakes at seven furlongs with a 117 figure. No matter how talented a horse McKinzie is, he’s up against some true professionals at this six furlong trip and he does not have any advantage in terms of how fast he’s run, with six of the others having earned Equibase Speed Figures of 113 to 119. With that in mind, I believe the three horses above all have a higher probability to win than McKinzie although there’s no doubt he could be in the thick of the action in the final stages of the race.

 

For the exacta, in addition to McKinzie, I think P R Radio Star (5) has a shot. He has run in a lot of claiming level races but his last start, at Del Mar in July 12, was his best effort ever (113 Equibase Figure) and it came right off the claim by D’Amato. He’s worked exceptionally well (best of 102) since then and could be this good right now.

 

Betting Strategies:

Win:

Bet BOTH Anyportinastorm (2) and Wildman Jack (8) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Desert Law can also be bet to win, at 3 to 1 or more. 

Of course, if McKinzie scratches that will lower the odds on one or all of the contenders above.

 

Exactas:

Anyportinastorm (2), Wildman Jack (8) and Desert Storm (3) over Anyportinastorm (2), Wildman Jack (8) and Desert Storm (3), McKinzie (4) and P R Radio Star.

Anyportinastorm (2), Wildman Jack (8) and Desert Storm (3) over ALL.

 

Trifecta:

Anyportinastorm (2), Wildman Jack (8) and Desert Storm (3) over Anyportinastorm (2), Wildman Jack (8) and Desert Storm (3), McKinzie (4) and P R Radio Star over Anyportinastorm (2), Wildman Jack (8) and Desert Storm (3), McKinzie (4) and P R Radio Star.