Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 16 | Post Time 5:25 PM Eastern

Claiming Crown Jewel | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

Surface to Air (11) just ran the best race of his career a little over four weeks ago at Keeneland, earning a graded stakes quality 108 Equibase Speed Figure in a second level allowance race. He’s eligible for this starter allowance race for horses which have been entered for a $35,000 claiming price in 2023-2024 by virtue of having been dropped into a $30,000 claiming race this past April when coming back from five months off. Surface to Air won that race by nearly eight lengths and after breaking a step slow at the start then moving up quickly from fourth after a quarter mile. Three weeks later he won at the same nine-furlong distance of this race, then five weeks later he won again. After two poor efforts when overmatched in stakes races, one on turf, Surface to Air rebounded to top form, rallying from seventh after a half mile, to fourth after another quarter mile had been run, to lead into the stretch. Considering he won three in a row between April and June, he has a BIG shot to win his second in a row and gets a strong pace to close into because Laughing Boy (9) is a need-the-lead type who has run fast in the early stages in his last eight races. Jockey Fernando Jara rose Surface to Air for the first time last month and rides back, which is another reason to expect another “A” effort good enough to win, opening at 8 to 1 odds.

Both Bourbon Day (8) and Money Supply (3) are legitimate contenders to win as well but noting their starting odds of 5 to 2 and 2 to 1 as compared to 8 to 1 for Surface to Air, they are not nearly as good for a profit on win bets.

Bourbon Day (8) has not finished worse than third in five races since being claimed by top trainer Brad Cox for $30,000 in February, which also qualified the horse to run in this race. His recent win near the end of September, by seven easy lengths, at one mile and three-sixteenth (very similar to this distance) topped his hand that he is in form and can get the job here. Just the same, the career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure is about three lengths slower than the 108 figure Surface to Air earned in his win last month, although Surface to Air’s next best winning figure of 104 is about the same as the one Bourbon Day earned in his most recent race.

Money Supply (3) used to be in the Chad Brown barn until trainer Joe Sharp claimed him for $35,000 in the summer of 2023. Since then, he has won six of 11 races, five on dirt, which he moves back to after a pair of lackluster efforts on grass in August and September. Money Supply put in five straight wins between last September and this past February, including in the Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes, and one of the wins came this this mile and one-eighth trip. Tyler Gaffalione gets back on after three races with other jockeys and he has been aboard for two of the horse’s wins in five races. During that winning streak in 2023, Money Supply earned back-to-back 105 Equibase Speed Figures, and he duplicated those figures when winning this past July so his best effort is better than that of Bourbon Day and just a big shy of the best effort Surface to Air has put forth to date, making him another horse which would be no surprise if winning.

Bets:

Win: Surface to Air (11) at 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Surface to Air (11) over ALL.

Box Surface to Air (11) and Bourbon Day (8)

Box Surface to Air (11) and Money Supply (3)