Race 9 at Parx Racing | Saturday September 21 | Post Time 3:32 PM Eastern

Parx Dirt Mile | Purse $300,000 | One Mile | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

On a card full of fantastic stakes races as part of Pennsylvania Derby day, the Parx Dirt Mile could be a very good race to make a profit. This is because the two win contenders, Injunction (3) and Adero (5) open at odds of 6 to 1 and 7 to 2, respectively, which odds are much higher than they should be based on their probability to win.

The reason Injunction and Adero could offer a very good return for the risk is because the starting favorite is Coastal Mission (7) at 5 to 2, and he is a false favorite, with a record of 1-2-0 in six races this year, with his one win coming in a one-turn, seven-furlong race. That race was NOT representative of this two-turn, one mile race, and in his only efforts around two turns this year, Coastal Mission finished second and fourth. Put another way, Coastal Mission is much better around one turn, and he may also be one of FOUR horses that run their best on the lead from the start.

One of other three “early” pace types is Movisitor (1), who draws the rail and who will almost undoubtedly use that position to go for the lead, as that’s the way he earned his last four wins, all with jockey Sanchez in the saddle as today. Concealed Carry (6) and Film Star (8) are the other two who appear to be “need the lead” types, and it will only take two of them to battle on the lead and go faster than average to benefit the chances of Injunction and Adero greatly.

Injunction (3) had won or placed in 11 of 20 races going into his race on May 3 at Churchill Downs, and he had NEVER been entered for a claiming price. I’m certain his connections were surprised when trainer Bill Cowans dropped a claiming slip in for $80,000. Right off the claim, Injunction won $60K of the $80K back winning the Shaefer Memorial takes on July 6, before a big effort when second in the R.A. Cowboy Jones Stakes last month. That race was won by Saudi Crown, the winner of the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby on this day one year ago. For those two efforts, Injunction earned 108 and 109 Equibase Speed Figures, which are tied for the best recent figures in the field with Adero and Concealed Carry, the latter who should be compromised by his need-the-lead style. Injunction has the perfect style for this race, as he sat in second for the first three quarters of a mile in the Shaefer before taking the lead and drawing off, and as he was fourth for the first seven furlongs of the Cowboy Jones takes before rallying for second. Jockey Morales was up for both those big effort and rides back, where is another reason we can expect Injunction to run a race good enough to win.

Adero (5) has won eight of 17 career starts, including one of the local preps for the race, a minor stakes at this mile trip on August 24. Prior to that he won at the same mile trip, earning a 113 figure, then he earned a 108-figure last month and both efforts if repeated, are good enough to win. In the first of the two wins, Adero relaxed in third before taking over with an eighth of a mile to go, and in his most recent start he did the same thing. He’s won from as far back as fourth which is where we can expect him to be off the two to four horse pace battle between the need-the-lead types. All in all, Adero could earn his ninth career win in his 18^th career start.

Honorable mention goes to Seven’s Eleven (2) and Repo Rocks (4). Seven’s Eleven is another strong entrant with seven wins in 16 career races on dirt. He’s never raced at Parx, and he’s never won around two turns, but he’s bred for the trip and has a good off-the-pace running style. Earlier this year Seven’s Eleven finished second in the General George Stakes (at seven furlongs) with a 110 figure and his most recent effort two weeks ago was a win at six furlongs with a 107 figure. He has run well enough, often enough, to be part of the exacta or trifecta at the least. Repo Rocks is a six-year-old veteran with 10 wins in 27 dirt races and is approaching the $1 million mark in earnings. However, he is much better around one turn than two and his two wins at one mile both came in one-turn mile races. Nevertheless, he’s a multiple stakes winner who last year earned 117 and 109 figures with his best efforts and those would be competitive if repeated, although it must be noted his best figure of 2024 (in five races) is 101.

Win Bets:

Both Injunction (3) and Adero (5) can and should be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1. Injunction is more likely to achieve that threshold as he opens at 6 to 1.

Exactas:

Box Injunction (3) and Adero (5)

Box Injunction (3), Adero (5) and Seven’s Eleven (2)

Box Injunction (3), Adero (5) and Repo Rocks (4)