Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. He publishes detailed analysis and selections for Keeneland and other tracks regularly which can be found at Equibase, Keeneland Select and other web sites. Ellis writes a widely distributed “Race of the Week” article which appears on the Equibase web site as well as America’s Best Racing.
Ellis will be posting his analysis daily for one race taken right from his complete selection and analysis report. Additionally, you can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.
Race 6 at Keeneland
Friday, October 2
Post Time 3:55 p.m.
#9 Spun d' Etat - Minimum win betting odds 3/2
Exacta: 9 over 1, 4, 6, 7
#1 is Torsie’s Charm, #4 is American Grace, #6 is Puye Timing and #7 is Lady Lilly
The exacta bet above is referred to as an “exacta key” and chooses one horse to win with any number of horses to finish second. At the $1 minimum, the cost of this bet is $4 and we win if Spun d’Etat wins then if any of the other four horses finish second.
Spun d’ Etat may be the most likely winner on the card. This is because her last effort, on 8/29, in which she earned her first win in her third career start, is dominant if repeated here and there are no signs another horse is going to jump up to that level. After finishing third in her first two races, Spun d’ Etat drew off to win by four lengths and earned an 86 Equibase Speed Figure, a number which represents time. The next best figure earned by any horse in the field is 78, which is the equivalent of about five lengths. Still on a pattern for more improvement and having earned the win by sitting in second in the early stages then passing and drawing off, Spun d’ Etat should move right through this non-winners of 2 lifetime allowance level.
Follow me on Twitter @Ubercapper