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Ellis Starr

Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase. His analysis and selections for many of the top races in North America can be found via his "Weekly Feature Race" articles at Equibase, America’s Best Racing and other web sites. Ellis also publishes detailed analysis and selections on the web sites of such major tracks such as Keeneland, Santa Anita, Del Mar and Woodbine as well as writes weekly blogs which can be found on many web sites including Keeneland Select.

You can follow Ellis’ insights on twitter @ubercapper.

Thursday, April 22, 2021

Race 6 at Keeneland
Post Time 3:51 p.m.

Win Contenders:
#2 Family Way – minimum odds for a win bet 7 to 2
#12 Witez – minimum odds for a win bet 7 to 2
You can make a win bet at or above the minimum odds on both win contenders in this wide open race.

Exacta betting options:
2,12 over 2,5,6,8,9,12,13,14
#5 is How Ironic, #6 is Valletta, #8 is Niceno, #9 is Curly Ruth, #13 is Court Return, #14 is Alnaseem
At the $1 minimum, and if all these horses run, the cost of the wager is $14. However, #13 and #14 are also-eligibles and will only run if one of the other 12 scratch. In that case the bet will cost less than $14. We win if #5 or #12 wins and then if any of the other seven finishes second.

Family Way is intriguing in this full field on the grass running a mile and three-sixteenths, and he is likely to be ignored by bettors as compared to many others because he is 1) Making his U.S. debut after racing in France six times and 2) Is returning from five months off. Neither of those things concerns me, because she is a Kentucky bred filly who sold for a hefty $775,000 at Auction as a yearling in 2018 and who ran well in many of her races in France. In her last start of 2020, at this distance, Family Way won in a field of 15, and her ONLY other win (in six races) also came at this distance. Trainer Walsh does very well with imports, having won with five of 23 over the last five years and a couple of those paid handsomely when winning. One of them was ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who rides Family Way, and paid $40 to win. None of the other 13 is a standout so if Family Way runs as she did in her final start of 2020, she can post the upset win.

Witez finished third at this allowance level last month and it was her first raced following nearly four months off. Last year she missed winning the Lake George Stakes at Saratoga by just a half-length and in the fall of 209 she finished second in the Jessamine Stakes on the Keeneland grass. Likely to improve physically in her second start off the layoff, she must be respected as a win contender in this situation,

Follow me on Twitter @Ubercapper
Watch video analysis on my Ubercapper YouTube channel
Get my other racing analysis and selections here:
Weekend Stakes Blog at Keeneland Select
Key Races & Bets Blog and Podcast
Equibase Race of the Week
Santa Anita
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