5 Keeneland Keys for Summer 2020

By Jeremy Plonk @Horseplayernow

Racing This Week: Wednesday-Sunday, July 8-12 

Where Do We Look?: My Old Kentucky Home. Given that the 5-day Keeneland meet is the week immediately preceding Saratoga and sharing the calendar with Del Mar’s opening, look for a strong emphasis on Kentucky horses being successful. A well-spotted NYRA or SoCal stakes horse obviously deserves attention, but in the ‘overnight races’ (maiden, claiming, allowance, starter), expect the better quality to be more local. Kentucky-prepped horses won 172 of 322 (53%) non-stakes races the past 2 Fall Meets at Keeneland and that number could grow with overlapping schedules at places like Indiana Grand and Gulfstream Park, as well as those awaiting Saratoga.

Tyler to the Top: Jockey Tyler Gaffalione finished second in the 2019 Spring Meet at Keeneland (1 behind Florent Geroux) and second in the Fall Meet (5 short of Julien Leparoux). But with a recent Churchill Downs title in tow, Gaffalione has established himself more firmly with Kentucky horsemen while remaining a conduit for Gulfstream invaders who have been racing year-‘round through the pandemic. Gaffalione has very big chance to top the rider standings this summer.

Family Ties: Into Mischief led all sires with 10 winners on the Keeneland dirt in 2019, but did so mostly because of high volume. And while longtime local pedigree players Candy Ride and Tiznow had their usual solid runs, a few new names have emerged. Cairo Prince delivered 5 winners in 2019 on dirt all in sprint races. Also, Wicked Strong’s offspring were effective with 3 winners from more limited attempts, including a pair for Mike Maker. On turf, Medaglia d’Oro had a huge year in 2019 with 5 local winners and graded stakes victors Cambier Parc and Marzo. Animal Kingdom sired a trio of turf winners and had 3 graded stakes-placed performers locally in 2019. 

High Stakes Players: With 10 stakes races Friday through Sunday, consider that favorites went just 10-for-36 (28%) in 2019 Keeneland stakes and the average winner was nearly 7-1 odds. Those totals for 2018 weren’t noticeably better at 11-for-34 (32%) and another 7-1 on the average win price.

Price Patrol: Look for trainers Dale Romans, Mike Tomlinson and Will Van Meter in maiden races at the meet. Romans has won 8 maiden heats over the past 3 years, 4 of them between 8-1 and 15-1 odds. Tomlinson has 5 Keeneland price maiden winners over the past 3 years ($15, $20, $24, $27 and $66). Van Meter’s 4 such wins include $35 and $106 bombs. Even though Van Meter was stout with maidens this spring at Oaklawn, note his local maiden success came with 3 of 4 scores in the Fall. He may still have some conditions left to lift.