5 Keeneland Keys for Week 3

By Jeremy Plonk @Horseplayernow

Racing This Week: Wednesday-Sunday, October 20-24

Need for Speed: Front-runners have dominated the dirt racing the first 2 weeks of the 2021 Fall Meet. The 30 dirt sprints to date have seen only 1 winner close more than 2-1/2 lengths after the opening half-mile and the average winner has been a head on the lead at that juncture (historic Fall average is -1 1/4 lengths). The average winner routing on dirt has been just under 1 length off the lead after the first half-mile (historic average -2 lengths) – and only 2 winners have closed more than 3-1/2 lengths from that point to the wire.

Tyler the Terrific: Jockey Tyler Gaffalione is running away with the riding title, going 15-for-53 the first 2 weeks. That’s a 28% win rate and he’s produced a $1.22 ROI for every $1 bet. The 15 wins have come for 12 different trainers, so it’s not like he’s hitched to a bandwagon. On turf, his win rate jumps to 33% this meet. Gaffalione won the 2020 Fall Meet with 24 victories and also took the crown in Fall 2018. With a strong final 2 weeks, he could become the first jockey to win 30 races in the Fall Meet since Julien Leparoux tallied 33 in 2011. Pat Day’s 1991 record of 45 may not be broken.

Time for Churchill: Over the past 5 Fall Meets, Week 3 winners exited Churchill races 75 times, far and away the most prolific last-out locale (Kentucky Downs next with 30). They account for one-third of the wins. As the timing increases between the end of the short CD September meet and the latter-week Keeneland Fall Meet races, it has been good calendar math to look toward Louisville.

Three Week 3 Barns to Watch: Trainer Mike Tomlinson has won at least 1 race Week 3 of the last 4 Keeneland Fall Meets, 6 victories total among those, none of which were favored. They’ve averaged nearly 10-1 odds, including a 23-1 score last year for those who already had noticed the trend. Graham Motion has 7 Week 3 wins over the past 5 Fall Meets, including 2 in 2020, and 3 stakes victories in that timeframe. Steve Asmussen has popped for 8 wins the last 5 Fall Meets during Week 3, including a triple last year. He’s won with 4 juvenile maiden special weights during that time saved for later in the meet.

Taking Candy: Twirling Candy has had an exceptional meet, represented by 4 winners, most of any sire. The versatile influence has flexed with 2 wins on dirt and turf, including a turf sprint and mile as well as a dirt sprint and mile. Not bad for only 7 starters, which also include a runner-up.