Aqueduct Hotlist - December 19

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Saturday, December 19, 2020 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                       B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2^nd race – (3) Big Tony’s Girl (C) was sent off as the 2-1 favorite, bet down from 9-2, in her debut in a NY-bred maiden claimer in which she had the lead in the stretch only to get beat by a nose at the wire. Now she moves to a maiden special weight. (5) Blame It On Mary has flashed speed in her past two starts in state-bred stakes races at Finger Lakes and gets class relief in this spot. (7) Get the Candy debuted on the grass as the favorite and finished third for Michelle Nevin. The daughter of Twirling Candy moves to the main track. (2) Vallarand was fourth in her first start on a sloppy track behind a filly that went on to win a stakes race in her next start.

4^th race – (7) Awesome Debate (C) was last seen in March winning a first-level allowance against NY-breds at Aqueduct right before the COVID shutdown. On that day she was heavily bet from 3-1 to become the 3-2 favorite. Trainer Charlie Baker has a 24% winning rate with long layoffs. (5) Miss Jimmy is the winner of eight out of 16 career starts and last race was second in her Aqueduct debut in one of these second-level OC allowances for state-breds. (3) Cathy Naz was last seen in August winning a $40,000 open claimer at Saratoga for the Bond barn. (2) Forever Changed drops in for a tag for the first time seeking some class relief after racing against open company or in NY-bred stakes. She won two of her four starts at the Big A.

6^th race – (6) Mo Gotcha (D) was the winner of an allowance at Monmouth Park two races back for Jeremiah Englehart and since came back at the next allowance level and got bet from 9-1 to 4-1. (7) Montauk Traffic was last seen on the Kentucky Derby trail running fourth in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct against a very strong field. Earlier that year he won the Jimmy WInkfield going seven furlongs for Linda Rice and returns in this second-level allowance going 6.5 furlongs. (3) Cost Basis returned from a long layoff to win a first-level allowance at Belmont Park in October for Chad Brown. (9) Happy Farm will make his first start since March leaving the barn of Jason Servis to run for Linda Rice. He was first or second in his last six races including two Grade 3 races at the Big A.

10^th race – (11) The Caretaker (A) has been claimed in his last three starts. Most recently by Tom Morley. He brings him back in a similar NY-bred $25,000 claimer after he ran fourth following a rough trip that included getting shuffled back to last, then he was blocked, had to swing very wide, and still finished fourth. (6) Kociuszko (D) moves back to state-bred company after getting bet down from 11-1 to 7-2 after breaking from the far outside of a 12-horse field and running fourth. (5) Just Right was claimed out of a victory at this level last time. John Toscano has this guy who does his best running at the Big A where he won three of five starts. (8) Seven Lilies is a late runner who finds a field loaded with speed. He won his only start at the seven-furlong distance of this race.

Best bets: Big Tony’s Girl (2^nd); The Caretaker (10^th). Best value:  Awesome Debate (4^th); Mo Gotcha (10^th).

@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 is on races 4-6 and includes two promising debut juveniles– 3, 5, 7 with 1, 4 with 1A, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9 = $36.