Aqueduct Hotlist - March 5

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Friday, March 5, 2021 at Aqueduct
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                           B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2^nd race [Clm 16000 N2L, 1 mi] – (1A) Curlin’s Knight has two second-place finishes at this level recently while shipping up from Parx and hot rider Trevor McCarthy stays on board. (5) Bulwark stretches out to a mile with good speed figures while sprinting. He’s got some back class to draw upon but will need to show more. (3) Mental Model didn’t run a step on a muddy track at Aqueduct following a layoff from June. Linda Rice brings him back in a similar spot to this one. He is another one with past races against better fields. (2) Unbridled John has the early speed that can control this race right out of the gate. He’ll move back to the mile now where that speed will be more dangerous.

4^th race [Mdn 20000, 1 mi] – (3) Bourbon Rising gets blinkers on and drops down from a $40,000 level for trainer Mark Hennig who has been winning and placing his horses well at the Aqueduct winter meeting. (6) Lotsnlotsofchrome ran second following a November layoff in a $25,000 maiden claimer going a mile and adds blinkers for Michelle Nevin whose horses run much better second off a break. (5) Loaded Joe has early speed and used it two races back to finish second. He seems to be a horse that follows a good performance with a regression which came in his last race, so he is due for a positive run in this spot. (8) Ohyoudidntknow was third last month at this level for Tom Morley and should be a factor in the trifecta.

6^th race [Alw 12500s, 7F] – (7) Malibu Mischief was the winner of six consecutive races last year at three different tracks in the Mid-Atlantic region including two high level allowances at Laurel and a starter allowance at Saratoga. The typical starter allowance at the Big A has a $50,000 claiming condition, but this race is open to horses that raced for $12,500. He won and was claimed at that level in June at Belmont Park. His last two races were in stakes at Laurel for Rudy Rodriguez. Both halves of the (1) Flat Awesome Jenny and (1A) Rude Awaking entry fit well at this level. (5) Dublinornothin won a NY-bred allowance two races back last month and was claimed after winning for $8,000 at Aqueduct in January. (8) Lovely Lady Lexi was claimed out of a win for $16,000 last time out by Orlando Noda in January.

8^th race [NY, Md 25000, 6F] – (2) Love That Face set the pace and finished second last time in her second race off a layoff at this same level. (5) Big Tony’s Girl has used some early foot to finish third and second in similar races to this one. (6) Rainbow Gal had a poor start and then raced wide in his debut for Bruce Levine and now she drops down for that $40,000 race. (7) What Mighthavebeen gets blinkers on and first-time Lasix in her second start after moving to the barn of Rob Atras and also makes the drop from a $40,000 race.

Best bets:  Malibu Mischief (6^th); Love That Face entry (8^th). Best value:  Curlin’s Knight (2^nd); Bourbon Rising (4^th).