Aqueduct Hotlist - November 21

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Saturday, November 21, 2020 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                       B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5^th race – (7) Money Ride (C) won a N3L claimer in his first start for trainer Michael Miceli switching from turf and synthetic to the dirt at Belmont Park and was bet down from 7-1 to 5-1. Now, he moves to a starter allowance after using up those restricted conditions. (10) Advance Notice was second last time out in his third career start for Michael Maker in a starter allowance like this race going six furlongs. (5) Siena Magic came back from more than a year off and finished second after a setting the pace in a N3L claimer. He was a claimed back from Charlie Baker for $35,000 by Bob Dunham who had the horse before the layoff. (3) Road to Meath has two of his best races on dirt recently and has early speed as do several horses in this field.

8^th race – (7) Saratoga Pal exits a victory in a starter allowance at Belmont Park last month and drops back to a first level allowance for NY-breds. His last four races were strong and he has a class edge over this field. (5) Jemography moved from a Finger Lakes barn to that of Mark Hennig and he responded with a narrow loss in a race similar to this spot. The top two choices willing be running late in this six furlong sprint. (3) Wow Brown was an allowance winner against state-breds and moved to trainer Charlie Baker since Finger Lakes closed for the winter. Speed figures make him competitive here. (4) The Revenger was a recent front-end winner of a maiden special weight at Laurel.

9^th race – (8) Ziyad finished third in his first start for Graham Motion in the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland when he closed from last place. The top four finishers from that race are entered in this Grade 3 Red Smith at Aqueduct. In his other N. American race was he third in the Canadian International (G1) in 2019, otherwise he raced in France in group 1 and 2 stakes. He should advance off the experience in American racing and training with Motion. (10) Red Knight won the Sycamore with a closing effort and he was second in this race last year for Bill Mott. His two recent races include a second in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G2) and have the two best speed figures of his career. (4) Sadler’s Joy has had bad luck lately. In his last two races he faced Channel Maker who went on the run third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). He was third behind him in the Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont. He crossed the finish line first in the Bowling Green (G2) at Saratoga but was disqualified and placed fourth. He won the Red Smith last year and this will be his first start since then in a Grade 3. (9) Aquaphobia won the United Nations (G1) at Monmouth Park this summer. Last start, the Mike Maker trainee was seventh in the Sycamore after a troubled trip. Before that, he was third behind Channel Maker in the Sword Dancer (G1).

10^th race – (8) Michael’s Bad Boy made his first start after moving to the barn of Saffie Joseph following a brief layoff and fell a half-length shy of breaking his maiden in a NY-bred claimer like this one. (6) Bricco returns from two months off for the Bond barn after a series starts at this level on the turf where he has had a couple near misses. (10) Spiritual King was last seen in September running second in a maiden claimer against open company at Monmouth. (2) Bielefeld has performed consistently at this level for trainer David Donk who is always dangerous on the grass.

Best bets: Saratoga Pal (8^th); Michael’s Bad Boy (10^th). Best value:  Money Ride (5^th); Ziyad (9^th).

@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 is on races 8-10 and includes the Red Smith (G3) on the turf:  5, 7 with 4, 8, 9, 10 with 2, 6, 8, 10 = $32.