Aqueduct Hotlist - November 29

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Sunday, November 29, 2020 at Aqueduct
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                           B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5^th race – (2) Caramel Swirl (B) was second in her debut for Bill Mott behind a $1 million Todd Pletcher runner who came right back to win the Tempted at Aqueduct. In that maiden race, Caramel Swirl was 11 lengths ahead of the rest of the field. (4) Miss Brazil (B) was third in her first start for Tony Dutrow on the turf and now she moves to the main track. (9) Paradise Song will make her initial start for Michael Trombetta. This $250,000 daughter of Frosted is out of a mare who won a stake as a 2-year-old. She is a half-sister to Spun to Run, a winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). (3) Precipitate is a firster for Chad Brown from Juddmonte. Her dam is a half-sister of Close Hatches.

6^th race – (9) Third Draft (B) ran third in her debut for Shug McGaughey who doesn’t win with firsters very often. It was noted after that race that she could use more distance and so it is here. Shug wins with 20% of his second-time starters. (10) Cadencia had the lead in her first race and lost by a neck for Pletcher and then came back on a yielding turf that may not have been to her liking. (2) Wow was second in her first two starts for Mark Hennig. (3) Technical Analysis was third in her initial start for Chad Brown in that same race on the yielding turf with Wow.

9^th race – (2) Lovestruck (A) was a rare debut winner for Bill Mott back on the turf at Saratoga. This Godolphin filly is a half-sister to the great sire Scat Daddy. She returns in the Tepin Stakes at the same distance on the grass. (4) Invincible Gal lost all chance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf when she broke badly. The Graham Motion runner won her maiden at first asking at Saratoga this summer. (10) Island Treasure was the winner of that yielding turf maiden special weight for Shug that was mentioned in the race 6 analysis. (11) Fifth Risk broke her maiden in her debut on the dirt at Saratoga for Petcher and switches to the turf here.

10^th race – (9) Propensity exits a second and a third in turf starter allowances and drops into this N2L condition for the first time for Bill Mott. (10) Unprecedented set the pace and then finished third in a race that was meant for the turf but went on the main track at Belmont Park, he will hope to get back on the grass. (6) Montauk Daddy will also make his first try in this $30,000 N2L claimer. He was stakes placed last year as a 2-year-old. (4) Grandmas Favorite completed a comeback after two years with a maiden claiming win for Wesley Ward.

Best bets:  Caramel Swirl (5^th); Lovestruck (9^th). Best value:  Third Draft (6^th); Propensity (10^th).