Belmont at the Big A Hotlist - October 20

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, October 20, 2022
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (6) Refuah returned from a layoff last month, finished third in a similar spot, and is projected to be on the lead. (5) Ocean’s Reserve finished second in his last four starts at three different tracks with consistent speed figures that make it look like he may have found a small field in which he can win. (2) Our Son Jack has been off since July, gets back to the main track where he showed speed. (4) Tie Breaker debuted at Monmouth Park in August and finished fourth against open company in a race that had very fast early fractions. Blinkers go on.

2^nd race [Clm 12500, 1 mi] – (1) Kerik won a starter allowance last month that was meant for the turf and now makes a huge drop down in class. (5) Linny Kate was claimed two races back for today’s price in a race that was crammed amongst several turf races. In the Spring, she was a winner at Aqueduct on the dirt. (2) Jen’s Battle will also move back to the main track where she does have two wins. (6) Grudge was a winner for a $10,000 tag back in June at Belmont and was claimed that day. Since then, she has been racing against much tougher company.

7^th race [Alw 105000 N1X, 6F] – (4) To a T following a pair of second-place finishes, including a finish behind the streaking Mosienko, she finds a field with a lot of speed that may set things up for her closing style. (6) Silver Strand will make her 2022 debut for Bill Mott after an impressive debut at Saratoga as a 3-year-old. (2) Baba is one of the speed horses in the field with three past victories at the Big A. (1) Snicket has three wins at Aqueduct and also ran into Mosienko last time.

9^th race [Alw 50000s, 1 1/16 TURF] – (1) Lady of Thoroton (A) was rank in the early going last time, fought restraint, and the raced very wide. Her form looks poor in the past performances with a couple of races coming off the grass. (11) Pegs A. K. Girl is in the best form of her career with two excellent and improving starts this year in a maiden claiming win at Saratoga and then an allowance at Colonial Downs. (9) Maybe Later stayed in a starter allowance that came off the grass in her first race after being claimed out of a $50,000 claimer at Saratoga. (7) Stella Mars had a pair of seconds during the summer that make her a contender in this field.

Best bets:  Kerik (2^nd); To a T (7^th). Best value:  Refuah (1^st); Lady of Thoroton (9^th).