Belmont at the Big A Hotlist - October 22

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, October 22, 2022
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

7^th race [Hill Prince (G2), 1 1/8 mi TURF] – (3) Constitutionlawyer (A) got caught in tight quarters down the stretch and finished fourth. Blinkers come off as he tries this turf stakes race. (7) Mackinnon moves from the California barn of Doug O’Neill to Chad Brown who wins with 31% of new horses like this. Remember that last year this guy was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) after winning three times. Since then he ran in stakes only. (1) Celestial City was an allowance winner last month after a second in the Saranac (G3) and a third in the Hall of Fame (G2) at Saratoga. (2) Grand Sonata was second in the Dueling Grounds Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs after running in two legs of the New York Turf Triple for Todd Pletcher. As a winner of two stakes at Gulfstream Park in the winter, he gets some class relief in here.

8^th race [NY, Md 40000, 7F] – (8) M. C. Double R (B) dropped into a maiden claimer for the first time, got bumped hard twice, checked sharply, got the lead, and finished third beaten by only a head. (1) Destin Hoofman was fourth in his debut last time and now breaking from the rail is projected to be on the lead. (10) Fast Study was fifth in his first start after racing wide. (5) Testa Dura was well bet in his first start for Linda Rice but got off to an awkward start. Rice wins with 26% of her second time out runners.

9^th race [Alw 105000 N1X, 1 mi TURF] – (4) Danzigwiththestars has strung together five races with good speed figures including an allowance loss by a head last time. (7) Internal Capital broke his maiden last time at Monmouth Park for Chad Brown as the even money favorite. (2) Steady On got his first victory last month at Aqueduct with a front-end effort for Todd Pletcher and is projected to be on the lead again. (1) Chulainn came back from a June layoff for Graham Motion and when last seen was winning the top level allowance for NY-breds. He has a past win against open company in a starter allowance.

10^th race [NY, OC45k/N2X, 6F TURF] – (3) Deep Cover (C) returns from an August layoff when he was bet down from 4-1 to 2-1. In the stretch the rider was intimidated by Irad Ortiz and finished second. (5) Phantom Smoke moves back to NY-bred racing by going in for the claiming option. He won at this level two races back and then tried an open company allowance. (9) Not Phar Now was claimed for $25,000 by the Noda Brothers from an open company win and moves back to state-bred racing for the tag. (4) Neuro comes back from a short layoff after winning the first-level NY-bred allowance.

Best bets: M.C. Double R (8^th); Deep Cover (10^th). Best value: Constitutionlawyer (7^th); Danzigwiththestars (9^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 7-9 and begins with the Hill Prince (G2) à 1, 2, 3, 7 with 1, 8 with 2, 4, 7 = $24.