Belmont Park Hotlist - July 10

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, July 10, 2021 at Belmont Park
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

4^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt , 6 ½ F] – (2) Water’s Edge (A) missed the win by just a neck after pressing the pace in his career debut for David Donk. He battled down the stretch and lost to a Todd Pletcher runner. (8) Blitz to Win made a significant improvement in his last start when he was second for the team of Barclay Tagg and Sackatoga Stable. (3) Tivoli Twirl made his first two starts racing for Bob Baffert but was transferred to John Terranova so that he could race against NY-breds. Last time out he was fourth in the Water’s Edge race which feels like a strong group. (5) Mr. Buckley has run third four times in his six career starts including that same race with the top choice.

6^th race [NY, Alw 80000 N1X, 7F TURF] – (11) Danfusi (B) broke through the gate in his 2021 debut, moved up to second at the stretch call, but then faded to fifth down the stretch. This Brad Cox runner should benefit from that start and be more fit. (5) Dr. Blute returns to the turf where his lone effort was a second beaten by less than a length in a similar turf sprint. Last time out, he tried a NY-bred stake on a muddy sealed track. (9) Rift Valley broke slowly and had to swing very wide into the stretch and still rallied for second. This field appears to have plenty of speed signed on. (4) Bad Guy is a horse to use underneath in the exotics with many seconds and thirds in his career stats. Good news is that top turf sprint rider Joel Rosario stays on board.

7^th race [The Belmont Oaks (G1), 1 1/4 mi TURF] – (1) Con Lima won her last two starts in turf stakes including the Wonder Again (G3) at Belmont Park for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher is off to one of the best starts in his career with the most graded stakes wins in the country for the first half of the year. Con Lima has six wins in 11 career starts with five of them on the turf. (6) Nazuna was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf (G1) last year to end her 2020 campaign. She was second in a Group 3 race at Epsom in Great Britain in her first start of the year. Johnny V. will get the mount. (5) Santa Barbara is likely to be a heavy favorite for the combination of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. In her last start she missed the win by a neck in a Group 1 race at the Curragh in Ireland. (8) Gam’s Mission won her last three starts moving up the ladder from maiden to the Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs. Her speed figures have gone up in her last three starts for trainer Cherie DeVaux who was an assistant to Chad Brown. This filly races in the legendary silks of Lazy F Ranch who owned Forego.

9^th race [The Belmont Derby (G1), 1 1/4 mi TURF] – (6) Hard Love raced four times in his career and won three of them with a second in the other race. This year he is 2 for 2 with a win in the Woodhaven at Aqueduct in his first start of the year flowed by an allowance victory in a quality field against older horses going nine furlongs. Trainer Jonathan Thomas won this Grade 1 in 2018 with Catholic Boy. (5) Du Jour began his career racing for Bob Baffert which included wins in his last three starts – two at Santa Anita and then most recently on the 2021 Kentucky Derby undercard in the American Turf (G2). Since then, he was moved to the barn of Bill Mott who has had plenty of success with his turf runners. (8) Cellist was the recent front-end winner of the Audubon at Churchill against what was a graded stakes quality field. He will have a pace advantage against this group and could well get loose on the lead. Jockey Julien Leparoux will come up from Kentucky to stay on board for Rusty Arnold. (4) Sainthood will make his first try on the grass in here. To his credit he seems like a turf horse. He won his last start in the Pennine Ridge (G3) on a sloppy track in a race that was meant for the grass. This Pletcher trainee was 11^th in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after a second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G2) on the Tapeta.

Best bets:  Water’s Edge (4^th); Hard Love (9^th). Best value:  Danfusi (6^th); Con Lima (7^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 on races 7 - 9 is an All-Stakes Pick 3 à 1, 5, 6, 8 with 3, 7 with 4, 5, 6, 8 = $32.