Belmont Park Hotlist - July 4

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Saturday, July 4, 2020 at Belmont Park
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                       B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

4^th race – (1) Mr Jaggers (B) had to steady at the start and rallied from eighth on a yielding turf course to finish third and now comes back for his third start off a long layoff in another maiden special weight on the grass. (4) Malibu Edge ran third in his debut on the grass for Shug McGaughey at Gulfstream Park. (3) Red Storm Risen ran just behind the Hot List horse in his 2020 debut for Graham Motion and is entitled to take another step forward. (5) Bail Out ran second in his debut this year going ten furlongs on the turf, so this mile and an eighth should a good spot for a horse that has hit the board eight times already.

7^th race – (4) Dante’s Fire (D) got bet down from 9-1 to 6-1 in his 2020 debut which came in his first try against winners in a NY-bred allowance. He rallied from the back to get fourth for Mike Maker. (2) Point Him Out broke his maiden against open company at Tampa at first asking and then came to Belmont and finished second in a NY-bred allowance. (8) Danfusi made his 2020 debut for Christophe Clement with a front end win in a state-bred maiden special weight. (9) Bad Guy had been racing against open company and then Rudy Rodriguez moved him back to the turf and he ran second in a N3L claimer. Here he will face NY-breds for the first time in several starts.

9^th race – (1) Network Effect (C) ran well to finish second in the Carter (G1) after getting bet down from 9-2 to 5-2. Beaten by only Vekoma, the one-turn mile should be to his liking. (5) Code of Honor was an impressive winner of his 2020 debut in the Westchester (G3) last month and as a multiple Grade 1 winner he has proven that he can handle a formidable field like in this Met Mile (G1). (3) McKinzie had a winning return in the Triple Bend (G2) at Santa Anita after the disappointing trip to the Saudi Cup. McKinzie was second in the Met Mile last year behind Mitole after a bad trip and the one-turn mile is probably his best distance. (2) Vekoma is also a win contender in the Met Mile after his last two terrific performances; however, he has never faced a field of older horses of this caliber.

10^th race – (1) Instilled Regard (C) was bet down to be the 2-1 favorite in the Fort Marcy (G2) and he responded with a victory. He will now stretch out to ten furlongs in the Manhattan (G1) for Chad Brown. (2) Rockemperor is also from the Chad Brown barn. He shipped out to Santa Anita to run second in a Grade 2 just a nose behind the winner, but he was disqualified to third. (5) Devamani is the third horse from the Brown barn. He ran a neck behind the top choice Hot List horse last time and seeks his first graded stake victory. (7) Dot Matrix was second by a head in a listed turf stake at Belmont. He has a past graded stakes victory and the Brad Cox horses are running well all over the country.

Best bets: Mr. Jaggers (4^th); Instilled Regard (10^th).            Best value:  Dante’s Fire (7^th); Network Effect (9^th).

@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 is an all graded stakes sequence in races 9-11 including the Met Mile (G1), Manhattan (G1), and Suburban (G2):  1, 2, 3, 5 with 1, 2, 5, 7 with 8 = $16.