Belmont Park Hotlist - July 4

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Sunday, July 4, 2021 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3^rd race [NY, Md 40000, 6F TURF] – 8) Tis a Pity has just one start in a field filled with horses that have had plenty of tries already to break their maidens. She was fourth against open company in February at Gulfstream Park. (10) Lookin to Fly switches to the barn of Joe Sharp to make her 2021 debut after last being seen finishing second beaten by just a nose in December in one of the final turf races of the year at Aqueduct. Irad Ortiz gets on board this late runner. (6) Little Red Button faced the boys last time and was third and open company before that. She will cut back to sprinting where she has run well. (7) Prairie Tales gets the services of Jose Ortiz, who is trying to win the Belmont riding title. This filly showed speed in her first start of the year.

5^th race [Md 40000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (2) Federalist Papers will drop into the claiming ranks for the first time for Chad Brown. She will get blinkers and Irad for the first time. (9) Except Temptation will return to a maiden claimer where two races back she finished second at Belmont behind a horse that was a return winner. (5) The Ginger Queen was second last time at Delaware Park when she dropped into a claimer for the first time for Graham Motion. (6) Mothers Day Jewel made a big improvement to run third at Gulfstream with blinkers for the first time.

9^th race [Manila, 1 mi TURF] – (2) Public Sector got back to the winner’s circle for Chad Brown and has been first or second in every race of his career except in the Breeders’ Cup last year as a juvenile. He should sit an ideal stalking trip. (4) Annex won the first three races of his career beginning in January at Gulfstream for Bill Mott. He faced graded stakes company in his last two starts and will get plenty of speed to run into. (8) It’s a Gamble gets the services of Joel Rosario who could be riding for Christophe Clement in here. He is another one who does best from off the pace. (5) Original is probably the fastest of the horses that want to be on the lead. He has never run poorly on the turf.

10^th race [John A. Nerud (G2), 7 F] – (5) Wicked Trick (D) got off to a slow start and was bumped at the start of the True North (G2) after getting bet down from 16-1 to 11-1. He will return to seven furlongs where he is the winner of 2 out of 3 races. (1) Firenze Fire is in the finest form of his career as a 6-year-old after leaving the barn of Jason Servis. The winner of his only two starts of this year, both in graded stakes at Belmont, moves to seven furlongs. He has two top speed figures in those recent races. (3) American Power has a great record going this distance – 12: 5-2-0. He had a four-race win streak in the fall and winter and was third behind Firenze Fire last time. (6) Three Technique seems to have regained the promise that he showed early in his career and now cuts back from a mile to this distance where he has won 2 out of 3 times.

Best bets:  Tis a Pity (3^rd); Federalist Papers (5^th). Best value: Public Sector (9^th); Wicked Trick (10^th).