Belmont Park Hotlist - July 5

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Monday, July 5, 2021 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3^rd race [Md 30000, 1 1/16 mi] – (6) Road to Success made his debut in April at Gulfstream Park in a maiden special weight and ran second. A performance like that will win this race. His second start was a grass try in the claiming ranks and he’s back on the dirt now. (5) Mo Heat is also from the George Weaver barn. He dropped down and moved from turf to dirt at Belmont Park and set the pace to finish second on a sloppy track. (1) Tiz the Journey returns to a New York track after training in Saratoga for Nick Zito. (2) Our Lucky Man has a hit the board at this level in the past. He is also entered at Monmouth Park on Saturday, [if he runs there, then (3) Bourbon Rising will be the fourth choice.]

4^th race [NY, Md 40000, 1 1/8 mi TURF] – (7) Majestic Sky improved vastly when he switched to the grass and ran second in both of those starts at Belmont. Last time he finished ahead of a horse who came back to win. (4) Eight Weeks Long ran fifth in his last three starts but all of them earned speed figures that make him competitive in this field. (5) Flintshire’s Rock will drop into the maiden claiming ranks in his second start for trainer Jim Ryerson. (3) Webb improved his speed figures in all three of his races.

6^th race [The Grand Couturier, 1 1/2 mi TURF] – (6) Gufo hit the board in his last four starts in Grade 1 races including a win in the Belmont Derby last year. Since then his speed figures have gone up steadily including his first triple digit Beyer in the Manhattan. (5) Moon Over Miami has also been racing in graded stakes in his last four. He was just a neck behind the top choice in that Man O’War (G1) in May. (1) Red Knight has been racing exclusively in Grade 2 and 3 stakes with five top two finishes in the last seven starts. The longer the race the better for this Bill Mott runner. (2) Fantasioso gets blinkers on after running second in the Belmont Gold Cup (G2) last month.

8^th race [Dwyer (G3), 1 mi] – (2) First Captain won the only two starts of his career for Shug McGaughey both at Belmont this spring. He is royally bred and sold for $1.5 million as a yearling. His two speed figures clearly top this field. (5) Snow House scratched out of Friday’s Iowa Derby for this smaller field. He broke his maiden and won an allowance in Kentucky in his last two starts for Brad Cox and Juddmonte. (4) Ridin with Biden won his last two at Parx for trainer Butch Reid. He is also entered in one of Sunday’s stakes at Belmont. (1) Gershwin won the Penn Mile (G3) which was run on a sloppy track instead of the grass. He is also entered for Michael Stidham at Delaware Park on Saturday. [(3) Civil War will be the fourth choice if he gets in the field.]

Best bets:  Road to Success (3^rd); First Captain (8^th). Best value: Majestic Sky (4^th); Gufo (7^th).