Belmont Park Hotlist - May 5

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, May 5, 2022 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [NY, Md 25000, 1 mi] – (1) Nova Loves a Fight just missed a win at this level in his third start and the barn has started the Belmont meeting as hot as possible - 5: 4-0-1. (4) Marshal Dillon had a solid debut last month. (6) Tuesday’s Child has caught wet tracks in his last three starts and set the pace at Aqueduct finishing second a half-length behind. (2) Alite has had many chances to win and not done so, but he has hit the board eight times.

6^th race [Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (4) Breakwater was 7-1 in his debut at Gulfstream Park for Shug McGaughey and finished third at today’s distance. (2) Sukoon had a troubled start in his debut for Todd Pletcher putting him far behind but he still finished third behind a horse that I liked in his return start. (5) Shreveport will make his first career start for Bill Mott. He is a regally bred son of Tapit for Godolphin out of a Grade 1 winning mare that has already produced a graded stakes winner. (7) Baltasar was claimed by Horacio De Paz from a second-place at Aqueduct and steps back up.

7^th race [Alw 92000 N1X, 6F TURF] – (8) Yes and Yes returns from a July layoff with plenty of past races that are good enough to win in this spot as he moves to the barn of David Donk. (10) High Front was a debut winner at Gulfstream in January that then had a troubled trip as a heavy favorite last month in Florida when he ran third. (5) Dancing Buck made his 2022 debut at Aqueduct in a race that came off the grass, but that start should have him ready to run better on the grass. (7) Kawhi Me a River broke his maiden at Belmont last year in his first start on the grass and now comes back from a winter break.

9^th race [OC80k/N1X, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (3) Napoleonic War (B) won his first start at Tampa for Chad Brown and then ran a close fourth in a Grade 3 race at Keeneland where he got shuffled back in traffic on the inside. (1) Celestial City broke his maiden in his second try at Gulfstream for Shug as the 3-1 favorite. (5) Ohtwoohthreefive gets blinkers on which is a very positive move for trainer George Weaver whose barn is going well right now. He drops out of a fourth-place finish in a stake at the Big A. (7) Quality G broke his maiden in his second race for Todd Pletcher at the favorite on the Tapeta.

Best bets:  Nova Loves a Fight (1^st); Breakwater (6^th). Best value:  Yes and Yes (7^th); Napoleonic War (9^th).