Belmont Park Hotlist - November 18

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, November 18, 2021 at Aqueduct
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [Md Sp Wt, 1 3/16 mi TURF] – (9) Conquer the World (B) ran well in his debut last month at Belmont Park for Todd Pletcher when he was third although he looked inexperienced in the race. (2) North Carolina made a huge improvement in his second start after a very long layoff when he switched to the grass. He set the pace for Braclay Tagg and got caught at the wire. (6)  Conglomerate will make his third start of the year for Chad Brown. He was the favorite in his last start at Keeneland and takes the blinkers off. (4) Balthus made his initial start at odds of 5-2 for Chad going a long distance at Belmont and finished sixth.

2^nd race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (1) Convertible Freeze (B) broke slowly in the second start of his career for Brad Cox in what was his first on the turf. He got shuffled back and then ran into traffic while dealing with a slow pace. (4) Curlin’s Wisdom debuted in a dirt sprint for Bill Mott and was involved early in the race and now makes the surface and distance changes. (10) The Big Salad will make his debut for Jorge Abreu who excels with turf maidens and all first-timers in general. (7) Barrel of Quests will make his first career start for excellent grass trainer David Donk. Lots of breezes on the work tab for this guy.

3^rd race [NY, OC 45k/N2X, 1 mi] – (7) Nicky the Vest (A) returns from a February layoff, gets Lasix for the first time, after dominating wins in his first two starts including an almost 12-length score in a NY-bred stake at Aqueduct. Both of his victories were at the Big A going the one-turn mile. (8) Troubleshooter won the first-level allowance last month after a short layoff for Jeremiah Englehart rallying from eighth to win by three-lengths. (5) Durkin’s Call was claimed for $25,000 by Linda Rice at Saratoga and has since won for that price and then he stepped up to this level. (4) Thorny Tale is the winner of 6 out of his last 9 starts at Parx and has eight career victories. He moves to face state-breds although trainer Jamie Ness does not have much success shipping to NY.

8^th race [NY, Alw 72000 N1X, 1 1/6mi TURF] – (8) Grape Nuts Warrior (A) got stuck in traffic in the stretch and surged for third once he got clear for Chad Brown. (6) Agent Creed (B) moved from a N2L victory to a NY-bred allowance where he ran into traffic, had to check on heels, and fnally rallied well from last. (5) Barrage moved to the barn of Danny Gargan broke his maiden and then was third on a muddy track in an allowance that came off the grass. (4) Lord Flintshire won a maiden claimer for NY-breds at Belmont and then ran competitively three times in starter allowances for Jorge Abreu. This could be a softer spot for a horse that has four place finishes.

Best bets:  Conquer the World (1^st); Nicky the Vest (3^rd). Best value:  Convertible Freeze (2^nd); Grape Nuts Warrior (8^th).