Belmont Park Hotlist - October 17

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Sunday, October 17, 2021 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [NY, OC 45k/N2X, 1 mi] – (1) Cartwheel (A) got squeezed back at the start which put her in trouble as a horse that prefers to be on the pace. She had to race wide on an inside favoring track. (3) Pay Grade was third in a NY-bred stake last time after an allowance win while racing on the lead. (5) Vallarand was a three-length winner most recently in a seven-furlong allowance while moving from turf to dirt. (2) Frost Me returned from a five-month layoff and got bumped badly at the start. She is a 3-year-old who was stakes-placed and a debut winner against state-breds last year.

2^nd race [Clm 30000 N2L, 6F TURF] – (2) Herald Angel (D) returns to this restricted condition from which she was claimed two races back. She pressed the pace in a NY-bred allowance last time when she was bet down from 27-1 to 20-1. (6) Khali Magic moves back to this N2L claimer where she was second recently after racing in a starter allowance. (11) Zerenia has been off since May when she ran fourth at this level. (9) Appreciate is unlikely to win, but has many trifecta finishes at this level.

3^rd race [Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (2) Urban Forest (C) took late money in his debut, 12-1 to 8-1, at Saratoga where he ran third for Bill Mott behind a horse that was a return winner. (7) Forced Ranking was third in his first career start, finishing just behind a horse that ran second in the Champagne (G1). (5) Citizen Mack was a $950,000 yearling purchase who will make his first start for Shug McGaughey.  (6) Debate will also make his first start for Bill Mott. He is out of a dam who was stakes winner as a 2-year-old.

9^th race [Md Sp Wt, 7F TURF] – (11) Lilac Girl (A) pressed the pace, had the lead, and finished a close second while racing between horses in her debut for Jonathan Thomas at odds of 5-1. She was a bit green down the stretch with some trouble changing leads. (3) Miss Bonnie T has lots of experience and top three finishes. Most recently she set the pace and finished second. She will cut back to seven-furlongs in here and that may be ideal. (6) Vintage Style will also cut back to turf sprinting as another one who prefers to be pressing the pace and finishing strong. (8) Intense Honor stumbled at the start of her first start, ended up in last, and raced wide to pick up a few places.

Best bets:  Urban Forest (3^rd); Lilac Girl (9^th). Best value: Cartwheel (1^st); Herald Angel (2^nd).