Belmont Park Hotlist - October 18

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Sunday, October 18, 2020 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                           B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2^nd race – (2) Exact (A) was heavily bet in her debut for Todd Pletcher setting the pace but eventually finishing second behind a $1 million Chad Brown first-time starter. Jockey Luis Saez stays in the saddle for the second start. (6) Jade Empress was second in her debut and then third in her most recent start behind the top choice. (3) Café Society was a $475,000 purchase earlier in the year as a 2-year-old and will make her first start for Shug McGaughey. (4) Hit the Woah will make her debut for Christophe Clement who wins at 25% with his firsters.

5^th race – (10) Five Alarm Robin (D) was heavily bet with her odds dropping from 11-1 to 5-1 late in the wagering for a starter allowance. She now drops to an easier spot in a N3L condition claimer going a mile on the turf having won the N2L two races back. (9) Mike’s Girl gets class relief as she drops down to make her first start in the N3L condition after three tries in starter allowances and her most recent start in an allowance that came off the grass. (8) Red Curls also finds a much softer spot after racing in second-level allowances and even a stake. She was competitive in most of those starts for a low-profile trainer and should come with generous odds. (4) Stefanie On Fleek gets blinkers on, which is a 29% move for the trainer, while dropping back down to the N3L condition.

7^th race – (5) Bad Beat Brian (A) had a terrible trip in his last start after getting blocked racing along the hedge he had to alter course and move outside and still finished fourth less than two lengths from the win. He was claimed out of the race by Michael Maker who brings him back in another N3L claimer on the grass. Maker no doubt saw that this 3-year-old was competitive in all of his turf starts. (7) Voting Control has missed a lot of time since running third in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Since then he won an allowance in 2019 and then came back this summer to run second in another allowance. Now Chad Brown drops him into a claimer for the first time. (9) The Last Zip will make his first start after also being claimed for $35,000 by Maker at Belmont in a N3L condition. No doubt Maker noticed that this horse ran third in a Grade 1 last year as a 3-year-old. (10) Conviction Trade takes the blinkers off as he drops out of second-level allowance races to try the N3L condition for the first time.

8^th race – (2) It’s Gravy drops out of a stakes race for NY-breds at Finger Lakes where he ran third behind a strong winner in Thin White Duke. Trainer Kelly Breen moves him back to a maiden special weight with state-breds. (4) Forty Two Ace also has two races of experience with a second in his most recent start at Belmont Park. (7) Doublepour is the only other horse that has racing experience and that was a solid fifth-place finish for trainer Mark Hennig whose young horses usually need a race. (3) Make It in Ny will make his debut for trainer Rick Schosberg. His sire Laoban has produced runners from his first crop.

Best bets:  Exact (2^nd); It’s Gravy (8^th). Best value:  Five Alarm Robin (5^th); Bad Beat Brian (7^th).