Belmont Park Hotlist - October 8

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, October 8, 2020 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                           B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race – (3) Risk Profile made his second career start and his first for the year when he ran third at Monmouth Park last month for Chad Brown. He will now cut back to six furlongs from that two-turn mile. (1) Twelth Man/(1A) Uncle Moonlight both fit well in this maiden special weight for Michelle Nevin. (2) Vermont Billy makes his debut for George Weaver who has a good record with his first-timers. This guy was a $475,000 2-year-old purchase last year and a half-brother of the Grade 1 winner Leofric. (4) Determined Fury makes his first start for Christophe Clement who wins with 26% of his debut runners.

6^th race – (5) Compliant ran third behind a return winner in his 2020 debut for Chad Brown at Saratoga and now will try this 11-furlong turf maiden special weight with the blinkers off. (6) Amano has a trio of third-place finishes with identical speed figures, also for Brown. (7) Holy Emperor missed by a nose the last time this distance was offered. (9) High Tide switched to the turf in his 2020 debut at Saratoga. Trainer Todd Pletcher has shown his expertise in these longer races on both dirt and turf and this guy should be a good price.

7^th race – (3) Tenure (C) was second in a similar N3L $35,000 claimer when he was bet down from 8-1 to 6-1. (7) Power Up Paynter drops out of a stakes race. Three races back he was the winner of a NY-bred allowance and now he’ll get some class relief in this restricted race. (12) Smile Bryan has yet to run in a claimer on the turf and has a starter allowance score at Belmont back in June. (5) Wild William was a front-end winner of a N2L race last time out for the Bond barn.

10^th race – (8) Panster (C) took a ton of late money in his debut in a race that was intended for the grass as his odds dropped from 11-1 to 5-1. The Clement runner was third that day and is entered again to run on the turf. (12) Whatmakessammyrun bobbled at the break and rushed up into contention in his debut for Weaver in a race that was moved off the grass. The second-place runner broke his maiden next time out. (6) Ruse will make his debut for good turf trainer Tim Hills. He is out of a mare that has three winners from three starters including a stakes placed earner of $252,000. (11) Sinashack, who is out of a mare that has produced seven winners from nine foals, will debut for Weaver in this seven-furlong maiden special weight.

Best bets:  Risk Profile (1^st); Compliant (6^th). Best value:  Tenure (7^th); Panster (10^th).