Belmont Park Hotlist - September 16

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, September 16, 2021 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

4^th race [Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (8) Split Then Double (C) was bet down to favoritism in her second start of the year for Chad Brown and ran third while pressing the pace. She will cut back from a mile to sprinting where she ran well last year. (2) Crowding Out debuted on the grass at Belmont Park and then ran in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga for Chad where she set the pace and finished third. (1) O’Gotten Girl will return to the turf where she had two seconds last year for Todd Pletcher. (4) Lilac Girl will make her first career start with a fancy pedigree and strong work tab for Jonathan Thomas who has excellent stats with firsters.

5^th race [Md 50000, 6F] – (3) Gabriela’s Miracle will make her third career start for Orlando Noda after setting the pace and finishing second in a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park just two weeks ago and makes that drop in for a tag for the first time. (6) Saratoga Kisses gets a pass as they tried the grass and she moves back to the dirt where she ran well against two good fields. (7) Afilada will make her debut for Jorge Abreu who has great numbers with debut runners in maiden claimers. (5) Prima Della will run in a claimer for the first time for Wayne Potts in her third race with improving speed figures.

6^th race [OC80k/N1X, 1 mi TURF] – (2) Lady Petrol (A) moved to the barn of Chad Brown and made her 2021 debut where she broke slowly behind a slow pace which made it very hard to rally but still made up ground after racing wide. (6) Sport Model has won three races in a row against NY-breds moving from a maiden claimer to two stakes while increasing in distance by a furlong each time for Christophe Clement. (7) Misspell has two starts this year for Brown with a nose allowance defeat at Saratoga followed by a fifth in a Grade 3 at Woodbine. (5) Contained won her first two starts of the year and then was second in an allowance at Monmouth.

7^th race [Clm 40000, 6F] – (3) Fox Red (B) set the pace and finished third after being claimed out of his last three starts. The rider lost the crop in that race as he moves to the barn of Saffie Joseph Jr. (1A) Happy Farm was claimed by Linda Rice for $50,000 in his last start which was at Belmont Park. This guy loves Belmont and the six-furlong distance and gets a favorable pace scenario as one that could use a stalking trip. (4) Free Enterprise is the winner of his last two starts following a layoff and was claimed. (5) Flat Out Beautiful will make his second start after being claimed by Rob Atras. Last time, he rallied to miss by a head for a $32,000 tag.

Best bets:  Split Then Double (4^th); Gabriela’s Miracle (5^th). Best value: Lady Petrol (6^th); Fox Red (7^th).