Belmont Park Hotlist - September 19

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Saturday, September 19, 2020 at Belmont Park
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                       B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3^rd race – (1) Conviction Trade (D) has been running in some very tough fields in this same second-level allowance condition and was bet down last time from 16-1 to 11-1. (3) Spirit Animal had won his last two starts for Chad Brown and then missed another victory by just a head at Saratoga. Castellano stays on board. (4) Winning Factor has moved up the ladder with three consecutive wins from a maiden claimer to a starter allowance and then an allowance for excellent turf trainer David Donk. (6) Three Technique exits four stakes races including his first turf try in a Grade 3 at Saratoga. He’ll get class relief here for a horse that was on the Kentucky Derby trail in the Spring.

4^th race – (2) Justice of War (C) was last seen when he made that difficult jump from a $20,000 maiden claiming victory to face winners in a $40,000 N2L claimer and was bet from 6-1 to 7-2 for Linda Rice. My rule of thumb is that in the move to face winners the claiming price should be below that of the maiden race. Making a jump up in tag, he picked up a couple of positions to get third. Now he returns from a February layoff as a new gelding and goes for a $16,000 tag. (3) Flying Finish will make his first appearance in the N2L condition after two allowance starts. He won a maiden special weight at Belmont against state-breds in June. (8) Mine the Coin was second and third at this level in his two most recent starts and cuts back to a sprint after routing at Saratoga. (4) Our American Star is a consistent type with 13 in the money finishes.

6^th race – (6) Engrave (A) was beaten by a very promising horse in his 2-year-old debut for Chad Brown. This $900,000 yearling purchase was sent off at nearly 6-1 which is an indication of how well-regarded that other horse was. (1A) Likeable (B) had the lead and was beaten by just a head in his seven furlong debut at Saratoga and today’s mile distance should be to his liking./(1) Known Agenda debuts and completes a strong Todd Pletcher entry. (4) High Knuckles gets blinkers on for his second start for Rudy Rodriguez who wins at 29% with that equipment change. (3) Rational Choice is a $375,000 yearling purchase for the team of Chad Brown and Klaravich Stable.

9^th race – (7) Maxwell Esquire (B) became a contender since getting moved back to New York-bred company. He won an allowance and then while stepping up the second-level allowance ran second after showing courage to fight through a tight opening along the hedge. He will go seven furlongs on the grass which should suit him. (8) Fast Getaway will return to state-bred competition after three tries against open company and drops in for a tag in this optional claiming allowance. (6) Big Package returned for a long layoff to win an allowance at Saratoga for Donk and should step forward again. (11) Bustin Shout gets the services of Luis Saez who leaves a Mike Maker horse in fine form to ride this Bruce Levine runner.

Best bets: Engrave (6^th); Maxwell Esquire (9^th).    Best value:  Conviction Trade (3^rd); Justice of War (4^th).

@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special Pick 3 is on races 3-5 including the Belmont Oaks (G1):  1, 2, 3, 4, 6 with 2, 3, 8 with 5 = $15.