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Keeneland Select

Belmont Park Hotlist - September 25

September 23, 2020

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Friday, September 25, 2020 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A:
A preferred horse to watch                           B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (4) Make Or Break (B) was blocked all the way down the lane in a N2L claimer for $40,000 last time but returns here in an open claimer for the same tag. (1) Hurricane Breeze exits a series of tougher races in allowance and starter allowance conditions where the Mike Maker runner was not far from the top spot. He gets a bit of needed class relief here. (7) Leeway showed improvement in his second start of the year for the Christophe Clement/Joel Rosario combo while running second at Saratoga in a N2L at today’s mile turf distance. (5) Gone Glimmering won an open claimer at the Spa last time on a sloppy track in a race that was carded for the grass. Trainer Joe Sharp will try again to get this filly on the turf. As a 2-year-old she was stakes placed a couple of times after winning her first two starts.

5th race – (4) Gunman (A) dropped into a similar $75,000 maiden claimer in his 2020 debut for Todd Pletcher. On that day he was rank and steadied in the early going to run fourth. Jose Ortiz gets on board in this turf route. (3) Starting Over will make his 2020 debut for Jonathan Thomas. He returns as a new gelding, drops into a claimer for the first time which is a 35% move for Thomas, and switches to the turf for the first time. (6) Break Beat ran second in his first try at this maiden claiming level in the same race as the top choice. (8) Summer Tune ran second in a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park in a turf sprint in his first start since switching to the barn of Jerry Hollendorfer. Now he’ll stretch out and drop into the claiming ranks.

7th race – (6) Stunning Munnings (D) was well bet from 7-1 to 7-2 has he dropped into a N2L condition in a race that was meant for the turf. She returns in a similar claimer hoping to get on the grass this time. (1) Corey Scores makes that favored drop out of starter allowances into the N2L condition. In June at Belmont Park she ran just a neck out of the win spot. (10) Henni Penny won a maiden special weight at Belmont in June and then tried three allowances. Now, David Donk goes for the win with the drop into this N2L claimer for the first time. (9) Mo Me Mo My gets a pass on her last race when it came off the turf and went on a muddy track at Saratoga. She drops back to this N2L condition where she ran second.

10th race – (1) Bonus Baby (B) made a dramatic improvement when she switched to the turf. She ran second in the race while running inside and then swinging out wide in a turf sprint similar to this maiden claimer for NY-breds. (3) Lady Teuflesberg (D) cuts back to a sprint after taking a ton of late money getting bet down from 27-1 to 14-1 for a Mike Miceli. (4) Lookin to Fly ships down from Woodbine and changes to New York trainer Michelle Nevin. She will make her first start in the claiming ranks and on the turf. (7) High School Crush ran second in her last two starts at this level. Last time she had the lead in the stretch, battled to the wire, but came up short.

 

Best bets:  Gunman (5th); Bonus Baby (10th). Best value:  Make Or Break (2nd); Stunning Munnings (10th).

No.

Name

Letter/
last race

Today's Race

Comments

(4)

Make Or Break

B on 8/16

2

She was blocked all the way down the lane last time.

(4)

Gunman

A on 8/12

5

He ran fourth in 2020 debut after being rank and steadied.

(6)

Stunning Munnings

D on 9/2

7

Well bet in a race that came off the turf.

(1)

Bonus Baby

B on 8/13

10

Stuck inside and then swung wide to run second in turf debut.

(3)

Lady Teuflesberg

D on 8/14

10

Took heavy late betting action and now cuts back in distance.