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Keeneland Select

Breeders' Cup FULLCARD Hotlist - Saturday, November 7, 2020

November 5, 2020

New York Hot List Picks - Breeders’ Cup Saturday full card analysis, November 7, 2020 at Keeneland
     By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch  B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – The Perryville - (1) Nashville was pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint after his first two races that he won by a combined 20 lengths. Trainer Steve Asmussen felt that race would have been too much too soon, so instead he’ll try for his first stakes victory in this six furlong sprint that drew only a field of seven. (4) Bango earned a career best speed figure in his recent allowance score at Churchill Downs. (6) Relentless Dancer will get a good set-up for his late running style. This Mike Maker runner is well-travelled with two stakes wins and a brief appearance on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail before realizing shorter was better. (3) Fore Left ran in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and then two turf sprints this year, but as a 2-year-old he did better as a sprinter when he won his first two starts including the Tremont at Belmont Park.

2nd race – The Lafayettte - (1) Engage made his 2020 debut in the Vosburgh (G2) and now finds an easier spot in this listed stake. Last year for Asmussen, he won the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland. (12) Phat Man scratched out of a stake at Belmont Park last weekend and now returns from a February layoff. He had a win and a second in graded stakes at Gulfstream Park last winter and the seven furlongs seems ideal. (8) Strike That is the winner of two of his last three races including a career best effort in an allowance last time out at Keeneland. He won both of his starts at today’s distance. (3) Absolutely Aiden returned from a July layoff when he had won two races in a row to run fifth in the Phoenix (G2). This is a more appropriate level of racing.

3rd race – The Fort Springs – (6) Fair Maiden made a victorious 2020 debut in an allowance race at Churchill Downs for Eoin Harty and now gets Lasix for the first time. (4) Wicked Whisper won the Miss Preakness (G3) with a closing move in her third start of the year for Asmussen. (1) Ain’t No Elmers was second in the Miss Preakness after setting the pace. (10) Motivated Seller won both of her career starts for Chad Brown. She broke her maiden at Gulfstream in January and then took an allowance at Belmont last month.

4th race – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint – (7) Serengeti Empress will make the final start of her career in what will be her third appearance in the Breeders’ Cup. Last year she was third in the Distaff after setting the pace. Expect Tom Amoss to have her ready to run a big effort in her finale. She will have to handle plenty of competition on the front end from the likes of Gamine and Venetian Harbor. (9) Bell’s the One will be making her usual late run and obviously she will get plenty of the pace to race into. Last seen she won a Grade 1 at Churchill over the top choice. (2) Gamine was named the 7-5 morning line favorite which is typical of stars from the Bob Baffert barn. She faded to third after racing on the lead in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and before that she won her first four starts. She will have to face older horses for the first time. (8) Sally’s Curlin is going to be a long shot and is another filly who will be make a big late move with a good chance to get into the exotics.

5th race – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – (7) Leinster won her last two starts in the Woodford (G2) and the Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland at the Breeders’ Cup distance of 5.5 furlongs. It is the ideal distance for this Rusty Arnold runner who will once again look for a stalking trip. (3) Imprimis won his last two starts in the Turf Sprint (G3) at Kentucky Downs and the Troy (G3) at Saratoga. Eclipse Award winner Irad Ortiz Jr. will stay on board. (12) Got Stormy was second last year in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and has had her career revived as a turf sprinter for trainer Mark Casse. She won her only two tries sprinting on the grass in Grade 3 races at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland. (8) Oleksandra was second in her 2020 debut in the Monrovia (G2) at Santa Anita and then beat the boys in the Jaipur (G1) at Belmont. The best turf sprint jockey in the world Joel Rosario will stay on board to make that big closing move.

6th race – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – (5) Knicks Go has run two very fast races going two turns since moving to the barn of Brad Cox. At Keeneland, the Dirt Mile will be run around two-turns. In February he won at Oaklawn Park pre-COVID and then returned at Keeneland last month for a front-end score with a very high speed figure. (1) Art Collector was fourth in the Preakness (G1) following four wins in a row this year that included a victory in the Blue Grass (G2) over Swiss Skydiver. (10) Complexity won the Kelso (G2) at Belmont by more than two lengths with one of the highest speed figures of the year. That was a one-turn mile and the only time he ran two-turns was in the 2018 BC Juvenile when he ran tenth. (7) Rushie won the Pat Day Mile (G2) for trainer Michael McCarthy who won the Dirt Mile with City of Light in 2018. Rushie was third in the contentious Blue Grass.

7th race – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – (6) Rushing Fall won all three of her starts this year including the Jenny Wiley (G1) and the Diana (G1). She won the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2017 which is one of 11 victories from 14 starts. She loves the Keeneland grass course as her record of five wins from six starts there shows. Trainer Chad Brown won the Filly and Mare Turf four times already.  (1) Starship Jubilee won the Woodbine Mile (G1) against the boys in September. She is the winner of eight of her last 10 starts. (4) Mean Mary had won four races in a row before losing to the top choice by a neck in the Diana. Jockey Luis Saez is an ideal fit for her frontrunning style. (10) Civil Union is the winner of her last four starts for trainer Shug McGaughey including the Flower Bowl (G1) and the Glens Fall (G2) in New York.

8th race – Breeders’ Cup Sprint – (2) C Z Rocket has won five races in a row since he was claimed for $40,000 back in April by trainer Peter Miller who won the Sprint in 2017 and 2018 with Roy H. The win streak includes a pair of Grade 2 victories at Del Mar and Santa Anita and an allowance win at Keeneland. (10) Yaupon is unbeaten in his four career starts for Steve Asmussen. The speedy frontrunner won the Amsterdam (G2) at Saratoga and the Chick Lang (G3) at Pimlico. Those stakes wins were against 3-year-olds only. (11) Diamond Oops won his last two starts including the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland. There should be plenty of speed for his closing style. Trainer Patrick Biancone is seeking his first Breeders’ Cup win in 23 starts. (1) Echo Town is also trained by Asmussen but this guy runs from off the pace. The winner of the Jerkens (G1) at Saratoga keeps his regular rider Ricardo Santana Jr.

9th race – Breeders’ Cup Mile – (11) Ivar is relatively lightly raced having begun his career in Argentina but came to America to train in Kentucky with Paulo Lobo. He won an allowance at Churchill in June and then rallied from behind to take the Shadwell Mile (G1) at Keeneland. (2) Kameko is a 3-year-old based in England with victories in the recent Joel Stakes (G2) at Newmarket and the 2,000 Guineas (G1) at the same track. (12) Uni won this race against the boys last year for Chad Brown. She won the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland where she has two wins in three starts. (5) Digital Age won an allowance at Saratoga and then the Turf Classic at Churchill also for Brown.

10th race – Breeders’ Cup Distaff – (10) Monomoy Girl crossed the finish line in first in 13 out 14 starts in her career which includes the Distaff in 2018 and six other Grade 1 races. She won the La Troienne (G1) at Keeneland for trainer Brad Cox this year. (5) Swiss Skydiver beat the 3-year-olds guys in the Preakness as part of a 2020 campaign where she raced at nine different track from coast to coast and won five times. (8) Valiance won her three most recent races for Todd Pletcher with the last two coming after moving from turf to dirt. A stakes win at Monmouth Park preceded a victory in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland. (9) Ollie’s Candy was second or third in five straight Grade 1 races at five different tracks and is likely to be part of the vertical exotic wagers.

11th race – Breeders’ Cup Turf – (2) Magical came back to America to try the Breeders’ Cup Turf again. Back in 2018 the Aidan O’Brien runner was second to Enable at Churchill Downs. This year she has three Group 1 victories in five starts against the males in the best races in Ireland and England. The 5-year-old mare has 12 career wins and $5.3 million in earnings. (3) Tarnawa is in the best form of her career with three wins in a row including a pair of Group 1 races at Longchamp. Legendary trainer Dermot Weld is winless in 16 tries in the Breeders’ Cup with only one third in those starts. (10) Mogul won the Grand Prix de Paris (G1) at Longchamp in September. The O’Brien 3-year-old will face older horses for the first time. (7) United just missed upsetting the Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar in last year’s Turf and since then he has been in excellent form with four Grade 2 victories from his last five starts. He is the best of the American runners.

12th race – Breeders’ Cup Classic – (8) Improbable has the best recent record in the field with three Grade 1 victories in his last three starts. He has shown the ability to adjust the way he runs depending the race situation. He can press that pace and most likely in the Classic he will rate behind what appears to a be a speedy early fractions. (4) Tom’s d’Etat will make the final start of his career in the Classic. The 7-year-old will make his first appearance in the Breeders’ Cup well rested after running third in the Whitney (G1) in August. He also has a versatile running style. He did hand Improbable his only loss of the year in the Oaklawn Mile. (2) Tiz the Law will make the first start of his career against older horses. He is well rested after running second in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The winner of the Belmont Stakes (G1) and the Travers (G1) has never run worse than third in eight starts. (10) Maximum Security has 10 wins from 13 career starts but lost to his stablemate Improbable in his most recent start. He has trained vigorously for his first start in the Breeders’ Cup. Will he press the early pace or stalk the early leaders?

Best bets: Leinster (5th); Ivar (9th).                Best value: Fair Maiden (3rd); Rushing Fall (7th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special:
In a Breeders’ Cup Pick 3, races 10 through 12, a $1 Pick 3 à 5, 10 with 2, 3 with 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 - That’s a $24 ticket covering the Distaff, Turf, and the Classic.