Breeders' Cup Saturday FULLCARD Hotlist - November 6

New York Hot List Picks - Breeders’ Cup Saturday full card analysis, November 6, 2020 at Del Mar
     By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

1^st race – Alw OC40/N1X [1 1/16 mi TURF] - (1) One Fast Bro is in fine form right now with speed figures that are at the top of this field. He was second last time behind the winner that came back and won again. (5) Appreciated won his last two races against open claimers and got taken for $40,000 by Doug O’Neill from a race just two weeks ago. (6) Dicey Mo Chara broke his maiden at Del Mar this summer and since had a third and a second in allowance company. (3) Offlee Naughty broke his maiden at Santa Anita last month for trainer Michael McCarthy earning the best speed figure of his career.

2^nd race – The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2) [1 5/8 mi] - (3) Cupid’s Claws ran well in past long-distance stakes like this one. In July, he was second in the Cougar II (G3) at Del Mar (6) Locally Owned ships to Del Mar after winning the Jockey Club Grand Prix at Belmont Park where he ended the winning streak of Lone Rock. (2) Lone Rock had a five-race streak of victories going long at four different racetracks around the country. He won 7 out of his last 9 races. (4) Tizamagician has won graded stakes in these marathon races like the other contenders in this field.

3^rd race – The Goldikova (G2) [1 mi TURF] - (2) Princess Grace is the winner of 6 out of 7 career starts including the last four in a row all of which were Grade 2 or 3. (7) Going Global is the winner of 5 out of her last 6 races since coming to America to race this year. Her most recent victory was in August at Del Mar in the Del Mar Oaks (G1). (6) Bodhicitta has past Grade 2 victories that fit with this field and gets a rider change to Joel Rosario. (1) Zofelle will return from a June layoff with her last win coming after a break from racing.

4^th race – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) [7F]– (6) Bella Sofia is just a length away from being unbeaten in five career starts and that loss was in her second start to a horse that herself was undefeated. This speedy 3-year-old has triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in her last two wins that include a more than four-length victory in the Test (G1). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez seeks his first Breeders’ Cup win. (5) Gamine will be a heavy favorite and deservedly so. She has only one loss in her career and that came in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She never lost in nine starts around one turn. (4) Ce Ce has two graded stakes wins in California this year with a five-length score most recently at Santa Anita for Michael McCarthy. (3) Edgeway won her last start at Del Mar for John Sadler in a Grade 3.

5^th race – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) [5F TURF]– (4) Lieutenant Dan is unbeaten in three starts this year with the first two at Del Mar going the five-furlong distance on the turf. He prepped for the BC with a win going longer at Santa Anita in the Eddie Read (G2). (3) Golden Pal is the horse to beat and one of three from Wesley Ward who have a chance to win the race. He seeks his first Grade 1 win to go with his victory in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2), the Quick Call (G3) at Saratoga this summer, and the Woodford (G2) at Churchill most recently. (5) Arrest Me Red won both of his starts this year for Ward and the last one in the Belmont Turf Sprint (G3) was fast. (11) Fast Boat earned a very big speed figure from his win in the Troy (G3) at Saratoga and then had a poor trip at Kentucky Downs. This Joe Sharp runner as a chance to get into exotics at big odds.

6^th race – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) [1 mi] – (5) Life Is Good faces the toughest field of his career as a 3-year-old but in his first three races he was the best horse in that division at that time. He missed five months and joined the barn of Todd Pletcher where he battled Jackie’s Warrior in his comeback race. He had an easy prep victory in the Kelso (G2). (1) Silver State had a six-race win streak, that included the Met Mile (G1), snapped in the Whitney (G1) and then again in the Parx Dirt Mile. There is plenty of speed in this race to set up his closing move but he will have to be in top form to get the win. (3) Ginobili is a fast west coast runner with wins in his last two races both of which were at Del Mar including the Pat O’Brien (G2). (4) Jasper Prince returned from a five-month layoff to beat a field of 16 in Japan.

7^th race – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) [1 3/8 mi TURF] – (4) Rougir was the winner of one of the biggest races in Europe, the Prix de L’Opera (G1) at Longchamps on Oct. 3 against older fillies and mares. (8) Loves Only You has raced against males in her last four starts which includes a Group 2 second in Japan and a Group 1 victory at Sha Tin in Hong Kong. In March at Meydan she was narrowly defeated by the formidable Mishriff. (7) War Like Goddess makes this race a great match-up between this American runner and the International horses. She is the winner of her last four races, all graded stakes, and most recently the Flower Bowl (G1) with an impressive turn of foot down the stretch. (1) Going to Vegas is the winner of her last three races in California with two of them at Del Mar. She has tactical speed as displayed in the Rodeo Drive (G1) at Santa Anita in her last start. Richard Baltas is an adept turf trainer.

8^th race – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) [6F] - (2) Jackie’s Warrior has only three losses in his 11-race career and two of them were in two-turn races with the other loss by just a neck after breaking last in the Woody Stephens (G1). This will be his first start against older horses. Many experts feel that Jackie’s Warrior is the most likely favorite to win on this Saturday card. (9) Dr. Schivel is unbeaten at Del Mar in three tries and in his four six-furlong races. Going back to last year, the Mark Glatt runner has five victories in a row while racing from off the pace to some extent. (1) Following Sea was an impressive winner of the Vosburgh (G2) in his last start. Clearly, this Todd Pletcher runner is a sprinter. (6) Firenze Fire as a 6-year-old will make his fifth start in the Breeders’ Cup with a third in last year’s Sprint as he seeks his 15^th career win.

9^th race – Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) [1 mi] – (3) Space Blues will make the final start of his career for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. This 5-year-old is a seven-furlong specialist who is in fine form right now with a Group 1 win in France at Longchamp and a Group 2 at York.  Both of those wins were around turns, so his form should translate well to the Del Mar course. He has two past wins on firm going. (7) In Love is in the best form of his career with a pair of impressive stakes wins recently that includes a win at Kentucky Downs and then his first Grade 1 score in the Keeneland Turf Mile. (6) Mo Forza has four Grade 2 victories in a row with two of them in consecutive runnings of the Del Mar Mile. At the mile distance, the Peter Miller runner has 6 wins in 8 starts. He will come running at the end. (12) Pearls Galore ran well at both a mile and seven furlongs in top-level group races in Europe. Last time this filly took on the boys and ran second behind the top choice in a Group 1 at Longchamps.

10^th race – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) [1 1/8 mi] – (6) Letruska has just dominated the Older Female Dirt division with five straight victories including four Grade 1s and four Breeders’ Cup Challenge races. Those five wins were at different tracks. When she gets to the lead early in a race, she has been invincible in her past eight starts. (3) Malathaat also has an impressive record. This 3-year-old filly lost only once in seven starts and that was by a head after she went to the lead at the beginning of the CCA Oaks (G1). No doubt she will go back to running late with the hope that Letruska gets a lot of early pace pressure. (2) Royal Flag had the best win of her career in the Beldame (G2) when she used a late rally to win by more than four lengths. In the Personal Ensign (G1) she was just a half-length behind Letruska. (8) Shedaresthedevil is the only horse to beat Letruska this year and that happened when Letruska did not get the early lead.

11^th race – Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) [1 ½ mi TURF] – (13) Tarnawa returns to the Breeders’ Cup to defend her victory in the Turf. She proved last year that she can handle the configuration of American grass courses. She ran a winning race in the Arc (G1) in her last start but finished less than length from the top spot. The same could be said for her second in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1). She has faced that toughest competition in Europe against the boys. (7) Walton Street romped in the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine in September earning a very high 110 Beyer Speed figure. This 3-year-old comes from the team of Godolphin and Charlie Appleby who have had tremendous results shipping to America. (3) Domestic Spending leads the hopes of the American runners. His only loss was in the Mr. D (G1) at Arlington Park when he could not catch a horse that got an uncontested early lead. He will have to go the twelve furlongs for the first time. (10) Yibir is another 3-year-old from Appleby and Godolphin with a relatively easy win in America in the Jockey Club Derby at Belmont.

12^th race – Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) [1 ¼ mi] – (4) Essential Quality won me over this year as, time after time, he would get an ideal trip and power his way down the stretch to get up and win. That has happened in every start except the Kentucky Derby when he fell a length short. Plenty of early pace is expected in the Classic, so expect Essential Quality to get another clean trip and a well-timed closing move. (6) Art Collector is the winner of his last three starts which were after he joined the barn of Bill Mott who knows how to win the Classic. He should sit a stalking trip and gets the services of Mike Smith since Luis Saez had to stay on Essential Quality. (3) Hot Rod Charlie finally got a Grade 1 win in the PA Derby. He faced lots of tough competition on the 3-year-old circuit and was always a contender. Blinkers go on again after his inability to keep a straight course in his last two starts and that equipment change is a bit concerning. (5) Knicks Go is hard to beat when he gets the early lead because he is fast and can carry that speed around two turns with ease. This is the first time that he will go the 1 ¼ mile distance and it is expected that Medina Spirit will challenge him for the early lead.

Saturday  Pick 3 Special:
In the Breeders’ Cup, races 5 through 7, a $3 Pick 3 à 4 with 1, 5 with 4, 7, 8 - that’s an $18 ticket covering the Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, and Filly and Mare Turf.