Churchill Downs Derby Day Tip Sheet - May 7

 

 RACE #1    $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:30 AM ET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

4-1

9

Congressman

F Prat

PLACE

9-2

10

Logico

J L Ortiz

SHOW

9-2

11

King Ottoman

J Rosario

WILD CARD

12-1

2

Malibu S S

T Gaffalione

 

ALTERNATE 1

4-1

14

Gasoline

L Saez

ALTERNATE 2

8-1

6

Vinco

B J Hernandez Jr.

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX, 11-2 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 9/10/11 BOX, 2/10/11 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #2    $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:01 AM ET

 
BEST BET:  #4 SURFER DUDE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

3-1

4

Surfer Dude

I Ortiz Jr.

PLACE

8-1

8

Osbourne

T Gaffalione

SHOW

5-2

6

Great Escape

F Prat

WILD CARD

9-2

2

Stayed in for Half

J Rosario

 

ALTERNATE 1

6-1

3

Unpredictable Bay

J R Leparoux

ALTERNATE 2

15-1

10

Buckingham Prince

F Geroux

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #3    $127,000 ALLOWANCE
 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 11:31 AM ET

 
BEST BET:  #9 QUEEN BOURBON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

9-2

9

Queen Bourbon

B J Hernandez Jr.

PLACE

3-1

7

Final Belle

U Rispoli

SHOW

7-2

6

Ready Lady

J R Velazquez

WILD CARD

9-2

8

Talking Book

J Rosario

 

ALTERNATE 1

2-1

10

Played Hard

T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 2

15-1

5

Two Sixtyone

M Murrill

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 6/7/9 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #4    $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:04 PM ET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

4-1

10

Money Supply

F Prat

PLACE

5-1

12

Emirates Road

T Gaffalione

SHOW

9-2

1

McLaren Vale

L Saez

WILD CARD

5-1

6

Creative Minister

B J Hernandez Jr.

 

ALTERNATE 1

9-2

1A

Varatti

L Saez

ALTERNATE 2

9-2

2

Bye Bye Bobby

J R Velazquez

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 10-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/10/12 BOX, 1/6/12 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #5    $500,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:36 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500K DISTAFF TURF MILE G1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

3-1

7

In Italian

I Ortiz Jr.

PLACE

2-1

8

Speak of the Devil

F Prat

SHOW

5-2

6

Lady Speightspeare

L Saez

WILD CARD

20-1

4

Abscond

T Gaffalione

 

ALTERNATE 1

8-1

2

Flower Point

J Rosario

ALTERNATE 2

6-1

5

Wakanaka

J L Ortiz

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 6,7,8 Box

* TRIFECTA: 6,7,8/6,7,8/ 2,4,6,7,8

 

 
COMMENTS: IN ITALIAN ran the top last race speed figure and is undefeated in two at the distance. SPEAK OF THE DEVIL has faced some solid company in Europe and might prefer softer footing. LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE showed some late pace improvement in her last and might benefit from cutting back in distance a little. ABSCOND has not won in a while but she is usually close at the end.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #6    $160,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $160K KNICKS GO OVERNIGHT STAKES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

3-1

2

Shared Sense

F Geroux

PLACE

15-1

8

Injunction

J L Ortiz

SHOW

5-2

4

Dream Shake

F Prat

WILD CARD

15-1

1

A C Expressway

I Ortiz Jr.

 

ALTERNATE 1

8-1

7

South Bend

J Rosario

ALTERNATE 2

6-1

11

Necker Island

M Murrill

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 2,4,8 Box

* TRIFECTA: 2,4,8/1,2,4,8/ 1,2,4,7,8

 

 
COMMENTS: SHARED SENSE never missed the board in four Churchill Downs races and ran the highest last race speed figure. INJUNCTION should be in peak form in his third start after a layoff. The third run was the best in the last three race cycle. DREAM SHAKE has three consecutive speed figure increases and might take another step up in his second start following some rest. AC EXPRESSWAY has been working well for this spot and could be closer to the front than usual.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #7    $500,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:56 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500K PAT DAY MILE G2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

2-1

5

Jack Christopher

J L Ortiz

PLACE

9-2

1

Major General

I Ortiz Jr.

SHOW

4-1

11

My Prankster

L Saez

WILD CARD

6-1

3

Pappacap

F Prat

 

ALTERNATE 1

20-1

9

Trafalgar

C J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 2

10-1

6

Tejano Twist

J Rocco Jr.

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 1,3,5,11 Box

* TRIFECTA: 1,5,11/1,3,5, 11/1,3,5,9,11

 

 
COMMENTS: JACK CHRISTOPHER has an early pace edge but also has enough late energy to stay upfront. MAJOR GENERAL has the versatility to win from the front, middle or back. MY PRANKSTER does his best when he is closer to the front out of the gates. The projected pace sets up well for him. PAPPACAP has probably faced the toughest competition for this group. This might be the easiest field he has faces in his last five starts.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #8    $750,000 STAKES
 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:48 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $750K DERBY CITY DISTAFF G1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

3-1

2

Just One Time

F Prat

PLACE

5-1

1

Lady Rocket

I Ortiz Jr.

SHOW

5-1

6

Bells the One

C J Lanerie

WILD CARD

4-1

7

Edgeway

J R Velazquez

 

ALTERNATE 1

7-2

5

Obligatory

J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 2

9-2

4

Kimari

J Rosario

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 1,2,6,7 Box

* TRIFECTA: 1,2,6/1,2,6,7/ 1,2,5,6,7

 

 
COMMENTS: JUST ONE TIME showed better in the back half of her last race and ran faster fractions in her last. LADY ROCKET is an all or nothing horse at the distance with three wins in five stats with nothing else. BELLS THE ONE has some of the best late pace and could get a good trip with plenty of fast types in front of her. EDGEWAY is fast out of the gate and fast on the track. She will be hard to beat if she has the lead in the stretch.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #9    $500,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500K AMERICAN TURF STAKES G2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

9-2

6

Portfolio Company

J Rosario

PLACE

7-2

7

Sy Dog

I Ortiz Jr.

SHOW

5-1

5

Balnikhov

M Franco

WILD CARD

10-1

11

Dowagiac Chief

J Graham

 

ALTERNATE 1

12-1

9

Stolen Base

F Prat

ALTERNATE 2

15-1

8

Royal Spirit

T Gaffalione

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 5,6,7,11 Box

* TRIFECTA: 5,6,7/5,6,7,11 /5,6,7,9,11

 

 
COMMENTS: PORTFOLIO COMPANY should be close to the front all the way around the track and has done well at the distance with a win and two second in three tries. SY DOG is undefeated in three but will need to step up here game versus these. BALNIKHOV should improve in his second start off a layoff and his second in the US. DOWAGIAC CHIEF ran the top last race speed figure and was considerably better in the first half of the race.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #10    $750,000 STAKES
 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $750K CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES G1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

5-2

3

Jackies Warrior

J Rosario

PLACE

7-2

1

Aloha West

J L Ortiz

SHOW

4-1

8

Cezanne

F Prat

WILD CARD

7-2

5

Reinvestment Risk

I Ortiz Jr.

 

ALTERNATE 1

5-1

7

Mind Control

J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 2

6-1

6

Prevalence

T Gaffalione

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 1,3,5,8 Box

* TRIFECTA: 1,3/1,3,5,8/1,3,5,7,8

 

 
COMMENTS: JACKIES WARRIOR should have the pace all his way. ALOHA WEST might be the one that can run down JACKIES WARRIOR late with three triple digit speed numbers in a row. CEZANNEs last race was even better than it looks like on paper with the same fractions at 1 miles as at 7 furlongs. REINVESTMENT RISK has improved his numbers in four straight races and might do it again in the third start after a layoff.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #11    $1,000,000 STAKES
 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:27 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M TURF CLASSIC STAKES G1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

4-1

1

Ivar

J Talamo

PLACE

5-1

3

Public Sector

I Ortiz Jr.

SHOW

3-1

6

Shirls Speight

L Saez

WILD CARD

5-1

4

Tribhuvan

M Franco

 

ALTERNATE 1

30-1

2

Bizzee Channel

G Corrales

ALTERNATE 2

12-1

7

Cavalry Charge

B J Hernandez Jr.

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 1,3,4,6 Box

* TRIFECTA: 1,3,6/1,3,4,6/ 1,2,3,4,6

 

 
COMMENTS: IVAR tied for the top last race speed figure in the Breeders Cup Mile. He is either won or been no more than 2 lengths behind the winner in seven consecutive outings. PUBLIC SECTOR has seven high quality efforts in his last seven races. SHIRLS SPEIGHT seems to be better the longer the race go, She gets more distance today. TRIBHUVAN could get a comfortable pace and be near the front from start to finish.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #12    $3,000,000 STAKES
 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:57 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $3M KENTUCKY DERBY G1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

7-2

3

Epicenter

J Rosario

PLACE

10-1

1

Mo Donegal

I Ortiz Jr.

SHOW

3-1

10

Zandon

F Prat

WILD CARD

8-1

6

Messier

J R Velazquez

 

ALTERNATE 1

20-1

5

Smile Happy

C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 2

12-1

12

Taiba

M E Smith

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 1,3,6,10 Box

* TRIFECTA: 1,3,10/1,3,6,10/ 1,3,5,6,10,12

 

 
COMMENTS: EPICENTER has proven he can win from the front or come from off the pace as he did to top the morning line favorite ZANDON. MO DONEGAL popped a huge speed number in his last and has tremendous late pace. If jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr, can stay in touch with the leaders early, they probably will not have enough to hold him off at the end. ZANDON is another that packs a powerful late punch. He has lost to some of the projected favorites but not by much. The extra distance could be the difference. MESSIERs last race was his best speed figure, despite finishing second. His resume says he will take it up a notch today.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #13    $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

9-2

6

Candy Tycoon

L Saez

PLACE

6-1

11

Laughing Boy

B J Hernandez Jr.

SHOW

4-1

9

Militarist

J L Ortiz

WILD CARD

6-1

3

Life Is Hard

T J Pereira

 

ALTERNATE 1

8-1

5

Treasury

J Graham

ALTERNATE 2

6-1

4

Rising Empire

A Beschizza

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 6-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 6/9/11 BOX, 3/9/11 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #14    $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET

 
BEST BET:  #12 BOURBON HEIST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

4-1

12

Bourbon Heist

L Saez

PLACE

6-1

7

Elite Power

J Rosario

SHOW

8-1

8

Improbable Journey

A Beschizza

WILD CARD

3-1

11

Strobe

F Geroux

 

ALTERNATE 1

10-1

9

Master Game

T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 2

6-1

3

Ludwig

I Ortiz Jr.

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 12-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 7/8/12 BOX, 7/8/11 BOX