Churchill Downs FULL DERBY CARD Hotlist

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List fullcard selections
Saturday, September 5, 2020
Kentucky Derby Day

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch  B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race – (4) Midnight Sands ships in from Dubai and may find Churchill Downs to be his oasis. (1) Home Base was a game second last time and will be a threat here. (5) Hog Creek Hustle may wake up in a small field.

2^nd race – (7) Kadri turned in a promising runner-up finish for Larry Jones in his debut and seems ready to graduate. (5) Idol could develop some fans in a hurry with a strong showing in his debut. (6) Full Authority might be a handful switching back to six furlongs on dirt. (4) Proud Veteran might be a factor on a dry surface.

3^rd race - (4) One Nation rallied belatedly for new connections in his 2020 debut and should benefit from that start. (6) Pit Boss usually brings home a check and will be a main challenger. (2) Fastly and (1) Storm King have inside speed and might get away with soft fractions.

4^th race - (5) Essential Quality seems sharp for his debut and looks best in this spot. (10) Copley sheds blinkers and may perk up on dirt. (1) Big Lake is worth a close look in his debut for Asmussen. (11) Rye Sense of Humor recovered from a rocky beginning to finish second and will be a threat here.

5^th race – (5) Spanish Kingdom was only a length behind in a graded stakes and should appreciate the class relief. (8) On a Spree was a wide third last time and could be closer today. (10) Parkland broke his maiden last time and will be a threat here. (11) Cavalary Charge is one to watch if he can work out a better trip than last time.

6^th race – (11) Cowboy Diplomacy retuned from a 15-month layoff with a winning effort last time and can make it two in a row here. (3) Coastal Defense missed by a neck in his first try against winners and will be dangerous here. (6) Cool Bobby was a troubled second last time and cannot be ignored. (7) Street Class should be a factor in the final furlong.7^th race – (9) Aurelius Maximus has not raced since an easy win in January but is working in a forward fashion for this start. (7) Chess Chief rallied wide last time and could work out a winning trip here. (5) Tank Commander won impressively after a seven-month layoff and seems poised for another strong performance. (12) Locally Owned is in good form but drew a rough post.

8^th race – (5) Smooth Like Strait won a stakes here in the spring then returned home to California and captured a grade 3 stakes. Seems set for another stakes win in this spot. (4) Field Pass had a two-race win streak snapped in a $500K stakes at Saratoga but can rebound with a win here. (2) American Butterfly stretches out and has enough speed to last for a share. (8) Fancy Liquor is razor sharp but has to overcome the outside post.

9^th race – (4) Vertical Threat was a lopsided winner of his last two starts in California and will be dangerous off a similar try. (2) Echo Town registered an eye-opening Grade 1 win at Saratoga and should be the main rival. (7) No Parole can bounce back with a better effort today. (6) Tap It to Win was second to Echo Town and should be right there at the wire                         

10^th race – (10) Therideofalifetime was a clear second in a Saratoga stakes and looks like the one to beat. (3) Super Stock exits a Lone Star stakes and should be the key foe. (7) Pico d’Oro won an Ellis Park stakes as a maiden and should not be overlooked. (8) Midnight Bourbon was a landslide winner at Ellis Park will be dangerous here.

11^th race – (4) Newspaperofrecord has been a monster at four and seems set for another stakes win here. (6) Beau Recall was second to the top choice two starts back and can complete the exacta again. (3) Juliet Foxtrot was third behind Rushing Fall and has enough back class to be a huge threat. (1) She’sonthewarpath has speed and the rail and may last for a major share of the purse.

12^th race – (10) Ce Ce didn’t fire last time around two turns but should be well-suited by the conditions and can work out a winning trip. (8) Serengeti Empress was a dazzling winner at Saratoga and is surely the one to catch. (6) Sally’s Curlin was sluggish in a Keeneland stakes but may be due for a better try here. (1) Mia Mischief is a horse for the course and belongs in the exotics.

13^th race – (6) Mr Dumas was a willing second in a career-best effort at Saratoga and ran well enough to prove best here. (4) Digital Age was prepped in a pair of allowance races by Chad Brown and should be ready for top effort here. (2) Bowies Hero has been a consistent presence in a graded stakes and should have a big say in the outcome. (1) Factor This will be tough to reel in from the rail.

14th race – The 146th Kentucky Derby – (17) Tiz the Law has been the division leader since February and has not missed a beat. He won the Runhappy Travers easily while being eased up, which gives him experience at the 1 ¼-mile distance that often trips up a Kentucky Derby favorite. With that out of the way, there should be no excuses today. (16) Honor A.P. was upset and finished second in the Shared Belief but he should be well-suited by the distance and is likely to be the main rival in the race to the wire. (18) Authentic is the real deal but the outside post didn’t help his cause. Nevertheless, he had the kind of speed that encourages you to include him in the exotics. (2) Max Player was no match for Tiz the Law in the Travers but should benefit from the added distance and may take a step forward while moving to Asmussen’s barn.