Churchill Downs FULLCARD Derby Hotlist - May 7

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List fullcard selections
Saturday, May 7, 2022
Kentucky Derby Day

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch  B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race – (10) Logico was second in his last two starts at Gulfstream Park and seems ready to graduate from the maiden ranks. (2) Malibu S S was bumped early in his debut, then fell back and closed fast late. Should be a main threat here. (7) Warrior Johny was second last time and fits well here. (9) Congressman tired in his debut but should benefit from that experience.

2^nd race – (8) Osbourne was a good third in a stakes and should be tougher with the addition of Lasix. (4) Surfer Dude was a length ahead of the top choice and promises to be the main threat. (7) Cathedral Beach won by a nose and should be a main threat. (6) Great Escape will welcome a return to dirt.

3^rd race - (7) Final Belle rallied wide and then tired. Likely to move forward here. (3) Lady Rockstar deserves a long look in her U.S. debut. (8) Talking Book can bounce back with a better effort here. (2) Community Adjusted makes her 2022 debut and cannot be ignored.

4^th race – (1) McLaren Vale is a former Baffert runner who ships in from California and looks best. (10) Money Supply had traffic issues last time and is the one to fear. (12) Emirates Road graduated from the maiden ranks impressively and will welcome wet going. (8) Mendenhall will be a factor if he can duplicate his last try.

5^th race – The Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile, G2 - (8) Speak of the Devil makes her U.S. debut for Chad Brown and should prevail over this group. (5) Wakanaka closed fast for second last time and will be the key rival. (7) In Italian has won her last three starts and will be tough to reel in on the front end. (6) Lady Speightspeare exits a Grade 1 stakes and figures to be a factor in this field.

6th race – The Knicks Go Overnight Stakes - (2) Shared Sense rebounded with a big effort last time and should give Cox a sentimental win in a stakes named for a horse he trained. (1) A C Expressway was a troubled second last time and can complete the exacta. (7) South Bend was hurt by a wide trip on a sloppy track and should fare better here. (8) Injunction comes off a narrow loss and can make his presence felt.

7th race – The Pat Day Mile, G2 - (5) Jack Christopher missed the Derby but can start off his 3-year-old season with a victory here. (11) My Prankster disappointed last time but can bounce back to top form here. (12) O Captain should relish a cutback to a one-turn test. (3) Pappacap has been facing the top 3-year-olds and merits consideration.

8^th race – The Derby City Distaff, G1 - (6) Bell’s The One loves Churchill Downs and should resume her winning ways here. (2) Just Our Time is in great form and will be the top challenger.  (7) Edgeway has sharp early speed and is a threat to lead throughout. (5) Obligatory seeks a third straight win and should be a stretch threat.

9^th race – The American Turf Stakes, G2 - (7) Sy Dog is a perfect 3-for-3 and can keep his unbeaten record alive here. (5) Balnikhov missed by a nose in his U. S. debut and should pose the biggest threat for the top pick. (6) Portfolio Company makes his 3-year-old debut and showed enough talent at 2 to be a force here. (2) Main Event was a front-running winner last time and cannot be discounted.

10^th race – The Churchill Downs Stakes, G1 - (3) Jackie’s Warrior started the year on a winning note and should prevail in this spot. (6) Prevalence seeks a third straight win and is quite capable of recording a victory. (8) Cezanne makes his debut for Pletcher and seems ready for a big effort. (1) Aloha West makes his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and should make his presence felt in the final furlong.

11^th race – The Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic, G1 - (5) Mira Mission lacked a strong enough rally at a mile but should benefit from the added ground in this field. (8) Adhamo just missed with a furious rally in his U. S. debut and will be top rival. (10) Santin has yet to turn in a poor effort but drew a tough post. (1) Ivar is classy and worth a look from the rail in his 2022 debut.

12^th race – The Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, G1 - (16) Cyberknife finally put it all together with an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby and has trained sharply since then. He has the right running style for the race and gets a narrow nod in a very competitive edition of America’s most famous race. (3) Epicenter looked great in his last two wins and will be very tough to reel in during the stretch run. (10) Zandon impressed with his Blue Grass win must needs to put aside his habit of breaking slowly which could be costly here. (7) Crown Pride seems quite capable of continuing Japan’s success story in major international races.

13^th race – (3) Life is Hard won his last two starts in a manner that indicates he can make it three in a row here. (8) Starrininmydreams was a distant second last time but could be closer here. (4) Rising Empire seeks a third straight win and cannot be overlooked in this field. (5) Treasury have been no worse than third in his last five starts and deserves a good look.

14^th race – (11) Strobe is a firster from Cox who can close out a great card by winning in his debut. (12) Bourbon Heist seemed home free and then was caught late. Can make amends here. (7) Elite Power makes his 2022 debut and seems set for a good performance. (3) Ludwig woke up with a solid second in his second race and will be dangerous off a similar try.