Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 30

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Thursday, Sept. 30, 2021

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:     

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (4) Kingsten’s Gold showed little in a MSW affair but should be more competitive here in a claimer. (7) Barkman is a firster who can make some noise in this spot. (6) Steely Danza will welcome a return to dirt and a claimer. (5) Out Work’n has some speed and looms a threat in this field. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-7. Exactas: 4-7 over 5-6 and 5-6 over 4-7.

4th race – (6) Absolute Love was claimed by Sharp last time and may be hard to catch. (3) Social Circle was no worse than second in his last four starts and could be a main factor. (2) Kasserine Pass will be better suited by dirt. (4) Gianna’s Gift fits very well here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6. Exactas: 3-6 over 2-4 and 2-4 over 3-6.

6th race – (1) Glamour Girl hasn’t raced since May but has been working swiftly and should turn in an improved effort. (6) Point Wild returns to dirt where she was second in her debut. (5) Sparkle of Hope will enjoy some class relief here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6. Doubles: 1-5-6 with 1-4-5-11. Pick 3: 1-5-6 with 1-4-5-11 with 2-4-5-9.

7th race – (11) Crimson Rose won gate-to-wire in her debut and can lead throughout here from the outside post. (1) Mercury Head won her first start and looks like the main competition. (5) California Angel won on grass but is untested on dirt. (4) Tizplenty will be a contender off her best try. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-11. Doubles: 1-4-5-11 with 2-4-6-9.

8th race – (5) Futuro returns to dirt where he does his best running. Is worth a long look. (4) B Maker drops to a bottom level and should wake up. (9) Road Bible should be effective at this reduced level. (2) Can’t Stop This Man ships in from California and fits in with this group. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-9.