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Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - October 2
October 1, 2021|
CHURCHILL DOWNS TIPS - SATURDAY, OCTOBER 02, 2021
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Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
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RACE #1 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET |
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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7-5
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1
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Codys Wish
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J Rosario
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PLACE
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4-1
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4
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Ghostlore
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J R Leparoux
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SHOW
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15-1
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7
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Doctrinaire
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B J Hernandez Jr.
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WILD CARD
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2-1
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8
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Extreme
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C J Lanerie
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ALTERNATE 1
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7-5
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1A
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Crump
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J Graham
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ALTERNATE 2
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15-1
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3
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Tartufo
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R Bejarano
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* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
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RACE #2 $30,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET |
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BEST BET: #1 SIX PACK
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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5-2
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1
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Six Pack
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D Cohen
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PLACE
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8-1
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3
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The Feature
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R Gutierrez
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SHOW
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4-1
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4
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Excursion
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F Arrieta
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WILD CARD
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3-1
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5
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Oncoming Train
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J Castellano
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ALTERNATE 1
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8-1
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2
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All Bodes Well
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J Talamo
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ALTERNATE 2
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10-1
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6
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American Unity
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F De La Cruz
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* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
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RACE #3 $150,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET |
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BEST BET: #1 KNOWING GLANCE
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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5-2
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1
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Knowing Glance
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M Mena
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PLACE
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4-1
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8
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Four Dawn
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J Rosario
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SHOW
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7-2
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3
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Not So Close
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J Talamo
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WILD CARD
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7-2
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5
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Devilly
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A Beschizza
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ALTERNATE 1
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9-2
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6
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Put a Bow On It
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C J Lanerie
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ALTERNATE 2
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15-1
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2
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U So Money Baby
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J K Court
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* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX
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RACE #4 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET |
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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3-1
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4
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Megans Clara
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J Rosario
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PLACE
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3-1
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2
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On the Rise
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A Beschizza
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SHOW
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6-1
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3
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Villareggia
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R Bejarano
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WILD CARD
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2-1
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1
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Front Street
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B J Hernandez Jr.
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ALTERNATE 1
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6-1
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8
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Supertaleofhoudini
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J Castellano
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ALTERNATE 2
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20-1
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6
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La Chapeau
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R Gutierrez
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* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
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RACE #5 $30,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET |
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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2-1
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5
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Tkotchke
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C J Lanerie
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PLACE
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5-2
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6
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Father G
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J Talamo
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SHOW
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15-1
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7
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Suspect
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J McKee
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WILD CARD
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3-1
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3
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Bebop Shoes
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C H Borel
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ALTERNATE 1
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6-1
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1
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Grove Daddy
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B J Hernandez Jr.
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ALTERNATE 2
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10-1
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2
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Catipari
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M Pedroza
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* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
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RACE #6 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET |
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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3-1
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11
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Dr. Perry
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J Rosario
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PLACE
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7-2
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4
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Hippodrome
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B J Hernandez Jr.
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SHOW
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10-1
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7
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Scratchoff
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C J Hernandez
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WILD CARD
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10-1
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1A
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Achilles
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C J Hernandez
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ALTERNATE 1
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12-1
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8
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Sacred Samurai
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C J Lanerie
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ALTERNATE 2
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30-1
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6
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Behind the Curtain
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J K Court
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* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 4/7/11 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
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RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET |
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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7-2
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4
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Brigadier General
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B J Hernandez Jr.
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PLACE
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15-1
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7
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Scattershack
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J Talamo
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SHOW
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9-5
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11
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Trafalgar
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J Rosario
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WILD CARD
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12-1
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9
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Driven One
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J Graham
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ALTERNATE 1
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8-1
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2
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Unpredictable Bay
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J R Leparoux
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ALTERNATE 2
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12-1
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1
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Baltic Fleet
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C J Hernandez
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* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 4/7/11 BOX, 7/9/11 BOX
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RACE #8 $400,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET |
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** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $400,000 LUKAS CLASSIC STAKES G3
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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2-5
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2
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Knicks Go
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J Rosario
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PLACE
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15-1
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4
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Shared Sense
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B J Hernandez Jr.
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SHOW
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12-1
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6
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Sprawl
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J Talamo
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WILD CARD
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5-2
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3
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Tacitus
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J Lezcano
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ALTERNATE 1
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10-1
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5
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Independence Hall
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J Castellano
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ALTERNATE 2
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20-1
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1
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Chess Chief
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J Graham
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* EXACTA: 2/3,4,6 and 3,4,6/2
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* TRIFECTA: 2/3,4,6/3,4,5,6 and 3,4,6/2/3,4,5,6
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COMMENTS: KNICKS GO is three for three at the distance, but Churchill has not been his favorite course with a second in three races. SHARED SENSE won his last, has run and trained well at Churchill. SPRAWL has been sharp in four of his last five races and just ran one of his best with Joe Talamo riding. He has got the mount here too. TACITUS should probably be ranked higher, but sometimes horses really struggle in their first race back from the Middle East.
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RACE #9 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET |
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BEST BET: #10 GRAYSONSMACHO GAL
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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8-1
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10
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Graysonsmacho Gal
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R Gutierrez
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PLACE
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5-1
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9
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Portal Creek
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P Lopez
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SHOW
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4-1
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8
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Himiko
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J Rosario
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WILD CARD
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7-2
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1
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Grand Cru Classe
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J Lezcano
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ALTERNATE 1
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8-1
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2
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Jilted Bride
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J Talamo
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ALTERNATE 2
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20-1
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7
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Secretly Wicked
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E Morales
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* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 8/9/10 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX
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RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:26 PM ET |
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** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 ACK ACK STAKES G3
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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3-1
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10
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Beau Liam
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B J Hernandez Jr.
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PLACE
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7-2
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6
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Aloha West
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C J Lanerie
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SHOW
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4-1
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11
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Rushie
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J Castellano
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WILD CARD
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10-1
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1
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Exculpatory
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C Cedeno
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ALTERNATE 1
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6-1
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7
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Plainsman
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J Rosario
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ALTERNATE 2
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12-1
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5
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Mr Dumas
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R Gutierrez
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* EXACTA: 1,6,10,11 Box
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* TRIFECTA: 6,10,11/1,6,10,11/1,6,7,10,11
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COMMENTS: BEAU LIAM is undefeated in three starts and could be in/at peak form in his third start off the bench. ALOHA WEST is a nose away from winning five of his seven starts, including the top, last race speed figure. RUSHIE is one for one at Churchill and has two wins and two seconds in five at the distance. EXCULPATORY rides the high win rate rail and has been training well, just not a big fan of the small track to major track angle.
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RACE #11 $127,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET |
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PICK ORDER
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M/L
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P#
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HORSE NAME
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JOCKEY
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WIN
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5-1
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9
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Calibrate
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F Arrieta
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PLACE
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3-1
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10
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Runnin Ray
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C J Lanerie
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SHOW
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15-1
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14
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Palace Coup
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D Cohen
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WILD CARD
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3-1
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4
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Laughing Boy
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B J Hernandez Jr.
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ALTERNATE 1
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8-1
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3
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Amanis Eagle
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J Talamo
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ALTERNATE 2
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20-1
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2
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Island Boy
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J R Leparoux
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* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX
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* TRIFECTA: 9/10/14 BOX, 4/10/14 BOX
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