Keeneland Breeders' Cup Friday Tip Sheet - November 4, 2022

 

 RACE #1    $185,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:55 AM ET

 
BEST BET:  #6 B DAWK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

2-1

6

B Dawk

L Saez

PLACE

3-1

8

Open Road

F Geroux

SHOW

6-1

4

Business Model

T Gaffalione

WILD CARD

4-1

2

Ethereal Road

I Ortiz Jr

 

ALTERNATE 1

5-1

9

Search Engine

E Morales

ALTERNATE 2

20-1

7

Jungle Warfare

R Bejarano

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #2    $150,000 MAIDEN
 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:30 PM ET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

6-1

10

Affirmative Lady

JR Velazquez

PLACE

5-1

11

Adiva

F Prat

SHOW

5-1

6

Klassy Bridgette

F Arrieta

WILD CARD

9/2

8

Vivid Dreams

L Saez

 

ALTERNATE 1

6-1

7

Black Forest

I Ortiz Jr

ALTERNATE 2

8-1

2

Magical Song

J Rosario

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 10-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 6/10/11 BOX, 6/8/11 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #3    $160,000 ALLOWANCE
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET

 
BEST BET:  #1 CALL ME FAST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

10-1

1

Call Me Fast

F Arrieta

PLACE

6/5

11

Marsalis

R Santana Jr

SHOW

6-1

3

Spartan Army

T Gaffalione

WILD CARD

10-1

10

Seal Beach

JJ Hernandez

 

ALTERNATE 1

8-1

6

Pro Oxidant

L Saez

ALTERNATE 2

9/2

8

Appeal Denied

F Geroux

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 1-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/3/11 BOX, 3/10/11 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #4    $160,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET

 
BEST BET:  #9 ARABIAN LION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

7/2

9

Arabian Lion

I Ortiz Jr

PLACE

4-1

12

Protege

L Saez

SHOW

5-1

11

Tres Soles

R Santana Jr

WILD CARD

15-1

6

Welaka

A Beschizza

 

ALTERNATE 1

10-1

7

Tap in Formation

J Rosario

ALTERNATE 2

20-1

4

Baytown Lovely

J Gilligan

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 9-12 BOX, 12-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 9/11/12 BOX, 6/11/12 BOX

 

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #5    $350,000 STAKES
 1 5/8 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $350,000 TBRED AFTERCARE ALLIANCE STAKES GRADE II

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

4-1

4

Heywoods Beach

RA Vazquez

PLACE

5/2

1

Rattle N Roll

BJ Hernandez Jr

SHOW

7/2

6

Bal Harbour

L Saez

WILD CARD

15-1

2

Next

L Machado

 

ALTERNATE 1

6-1

9

Win the Day

U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 2

10-1

5

Sheriff Brown

F Geroux

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 1,2,4,6 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1,2,4,6/1,4/1,2,4,6,9

 

 
COMMENTS: HEYWOODS BEACH ran faster fractions last out despite going a little longer. RATTLE N ROLL will be looking for his third win and triple digit speed figure in a row. BAL HARBOUR will try to get loose on the lead and go to wire like he did in his last start. NEXT just needs to repeat his last race where he was brilliant from start to finish.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #6    $1,000,000 STAKES
 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT GI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

4-1

2

Love Reigns

I Ortiz Jr

PLACE

7/2

12

The Platinum Queen

H Doyle

SHOW

15-1

6

Persian Force

L Dettori

WILD CARD

15-1

4

Dramatised

RL Moore

 

ALTERNATE 1

8-1

5

Mischief Magic

WT Buick

ALTERNATE 2

12-1

3

Private Creed

J Rosario

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 2,4,6,12 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2,4,6,12/2,6,12/2,4,5,6,12

 

 
COMMENTS: LOVE REIGNS is another Wesley Ward rocket that tends to extend her dominance as the race goes on. THE PLATINUM QUEEN has faced and beat older horses. She appears to prefer firmer footing which she will get. PERSIAN FORCE is battle tested and proven to be extremely competitive against some of Europes best two year olds. DRAMATISED won his first two races with ease and then ran a stinker in his third. A little rest and a jockey switch to Ryan Moore could help him find his early form.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #7    $2,000,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $2M BC JUVENILE FILLIES GRADE I

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

5-1

5

Wonder Wheel

T Gaffalione

PLACE

4-1

7

Chop Chop

J Rosario

SHOW

7/2

10

Chocolate Gelato

I Ortiz Jr

WILD CARD

8-1

14

Raging Sea

F Prat

 

ALTERNATE 1

12-1

8

Atomically

L Saez

ALTERNATE 2

8-1

3

And Tell Me Nolies

RA Vazquez

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 5,7,10,14 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 5,7,10,14/5,7,10/5,7,8,10,14

 

 
COMMENTS: WONDER WHEEL can some better fractions last out through the first 6 furlongs and has two nice works since. CHOP CHOP is just a nose from being undefeated in three races and also has some nice tune up works between races. CHOCOLATE GELATO could get a really good trip for her running style. RAGING SEA showed better early pace in her last race and first at a mile or more.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #8    $1,000,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF GRADE I

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

4-1

10

Meditate

RL Moore

PLACE

6-1

9

Delight

L Saez

SHOW

12-1

11

G Laurie

WT Buick

WILD CARD

12-1

2

Cairo Consort

J Rosario

 

ALTERNATE 1

10-1

12

Midnight Mile

W Lordan

ALTERNATE 2

12-1

5

Pleasant Passage

I Ortiz Jr

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 2,9,10,11 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2,9,10,11/9,10,11/2,9,10,11,12

 

 
COMMENTS: This is an extremely competitive race where you can make a case for at least half the entrants. MEDIATE has four wins and a pair of seconds in her start. She ran in nothing but group company after winning her debut. DELIGHT has a pair of races at Keeneland with a win and third. G LAURIE has the top pedigree scores for grass. She will be coming hard late and jockey Luis Saez will need to avoid getting blocked again. CAIRO CONSORT has some versatility and is able to score from the front to back.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #9    $2,000,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $2M BC JUVENILE GRADE I

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

4/5

3

Cave Rock

JJ Hernandez

PLACE

4-1

4

Forte

I Ortiz Jr

SHOW

30-1

1

Hurricane J

J Talamo

WILD CARD

8-1

10

National Treasure

JR Velazquez

 

ALTERNATE 1

10-1

5

Verifyig

J Rosario

ALTERNATE 2

20-1

8

Lost Ark

L Saez

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 3/1,4,5,8,10

* TRIFECTA: 3/1,4,10/1,4,5,8,10

 

 
COMMENTS: CAVE ROCK looks like the next wonder horse for trainer Bob Baffert. He is undefeated in three with triple digit speed figures. FORTE will be hoping for a pace melt up so he can blow by dead legged speed. HURRICANE J has plenty of early pop and is going long for the first time, which can be a longshot winning combo. NATIONAL TREASURE was a lot better in career start number two and has three nice workouts since.

 

 

 

 

 
 RACE #10    $1,000,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ET

 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M BC JUVENILE TURF GRADE I

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIN

3-1

4

Silver Knott

WT Buick

PLACE

5-1

6

Andthewinneris

J Rosario

SHOW

9/2

8

Im Very Busy

F Prat

WILD CARD

6-1

2

Packs a Wahlop

ME Smith

 

ALTERNATE 1

8-1

1

Victoria Road

RL Moore

ALTERNATE 2

20-1

9

Nagirroc

M Franco

 

 

 

 

* EXACTA: 2,4,6,8 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2,4,6,8/4,6,/1,2,4,6,8,9

 

 
COMMENTS: SILVER KNOTT cost more than one million dollars and has run to his price tag in three of five races. ANDTHEWINNERIS ran some much better fractions last out at Keeneland where he is two for two. IM VERY BUSY got bumped early in his last and had to run wide on a yielding track. He should get a firm course and hopefully a cleaner trip. PACKS A WAHLOP is undefeated in two at the distance and neither were close as he pulled away at the wire.