Keeneland Breeders' Cup FULLCARD Hotlist - November 5, 2022

NY Hot List Picks - Breeders’ Cup Saturday full card analysis, November 5, 2022 at Keeneland
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

1^st race – [Md Sp Wt, 7F] - (11) Certain put in a bullet work on Oct. 29 at Keeneland when a bevy of Breeders’ Cup horses were on the track. Should be tough to catch in his career debut. (12) Reagan missed by a neck in his debut and is the one to fear. (10) Expect More also looks like a talented firster. (4) Arabian Knight is a firster from Baffert who cannot be ignored.

2^nd race – [OC 100k/C, 6 ½ F] - (3) Messier has been training brilliantly for his first start since the Kentucky Derby and deserves top billing. (5) Gun It is capable of rebounding in this spot. (6) Long Range Toddy missed by a neck in a stakes over the track and merits consideration here. (1) Endorsed could be a threat on the cutback in distance.

3^rd race – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) [7F]– (8) Goodnight Olive won her last four races in a row including her first stakes victory in the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga. Her stalking style fits for a seven-furlong race. Trainer Chad Brown won this race at Keeneland with Wavell Avenue in 2015. (2) Edgeway was second in this race last year and trainer John Sadler followed that same preparation with a victory in the Rancho Bernardo (G3) at Del Mar in August. (4) Ce Ce will try and win this race for the second year in a row. She prepped for the race just like last year with a win in the Chillingsworth (G3) at Santa Anita. (7) Obligatory is in fine form in 2022 with all top three finishes in graded stakes including a win in the Derby City Distaff (G1).

4^th race – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) [5 ½ F TURF]– (8) Golden Pal seeks his third Breeders’ Cup victory to go with last year’s Turf Sprint and the Juvenile Turf Sprint. He has never lost a race in America with his two defeats in England. (4) Campanelle won the Ladies Sprint (G3) at Kentucky Downs following a layoff after a trip to Royal Ascot where she was a close third in a Group 1. (6) Highfield Princess is the winner of three straight Group 1 races in Europe against the boys at the best tracks at Deauville, York, and the Curragh. (1) Creative Force is part of team Charlie Appleby and is a past Group 1 winner.

5^th race – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) [1 mi] – (9) Cyberknife won the Haskell (G1) and the Arkansas Derby (G1) this year and was second behind Epicenter in the Travers. The two-turn configuration of the Dirt Mile this year is ideal for the Brad Cox runner. (6) Laurel River won his last three starts for Bob Baffert including the Pat O’Brien (G2) at Del Mar in August. (7) Cody’s Wish won 6 out of his last 7 starts including the Westchester (G3) and the Forego (G1) at Saratoga over Jackie’s Warrior. (5) Gunite is a gutsy sprinter for Steve Asmussen and has been first or second in his last six starts. He was second behind Jack Christopher in the Jerkens (G1) with a stalking move.

6^th race – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) [1 3/16 mi TURF] – (3) Nashwa was second in the Prix de l’Opera (G1) at Longchamps following a layoff during the summer, but before that she won a pair of Group 1s in France and England for legendary trainer John Gosden. (4) Above the Curve was just a head behind Nashwa in the race at Longchamps following a Group 2 and a Group 1 victory for Joseph O’Brien. (11) In Italian used her speed to get a pair of front-end victories in the First Lady (G1) and Diana (G1) for Chad Brown and speed is always dangerous. She finished in the top three in all eight of her starts. (9) Rougir won the EP Taylor (G1) for Chad Brown which may indicate that she has regained her best form.

7^th race – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) [6F] - (8) C Z Rocket If the pace collapses, he should benefit with his late running style. He was recently second by a nose in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2). Trainer Peter Miller has had great success in Breeders’ Cup sprint races. (9) Jackie’s Warrior has been the best American sprinter for the past two years, but he was second last time out when he faced pressure out front. Last year, he was sixth in the BC Sprint. (1) Manny Wah has shown a liking for the Keeneland track with a victory in the Phoenix (G2) with a strong closing move. (4) American Theorem has two wins and a second since cutting back to sprinting three starts ago. He won the Triple Bend (G2) and the Bing Crosby (G1).

8^th race – Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) [1 mi] – (4) Modern Games will try and win his second Breeders’ Cup after taking last year’s Juvenile Turf (G1) for Charlie Appleby. He overwhelmed the field in the Woodbine Mile in September and was second in a Group 1 at Ascot last month. (14) Domestic Spending will try and win the Mile after a 15-month layoff. All reports say he is training better than ever. Chad Brown has remarkable statistics with horses returning from long layoffs at all levels including Grade 1s. When last seen in 2021 he was the best turf horse in America. (11) Annapolis has never run worse than second in seven career starts including his first Grade 1 at Keeneland in the Turf Mile. This 3-year-old is getting better and better for Todd Pletcher. (5) Smooth Like Strait has lots of early speed which he has used to finish in the top three in many Grade 1 races.

9^th race – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) [1 1/8 mi] – (6) Nest has been remarkable since her second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1). She overwhelmed three fields in the New York with a fast turn of foot in the Beldame (G2), Alabama (G1), and the CCA Oaks (G1). (1) Malathaat has never run out of the top three in her 13 starts with nine wins and her win in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland was one of her best ever. (4) Clairiere beat Malathaat twice this year and gets an excuse for her poor performance in the Personal Ensign (G1) after she banged her head in the starting gate and did not run at all. (8) Society is dangerous in this field as possibly the lone speed following a dominant win in the Cotillion (G1).

10^th race – Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) [1 ½ mi TURF] – (5) Rebel’s Romance comes to the Breeders’ Cup with four wins in a row with a pair of Group 1 victories in Germany following two wins in England. She has a perfect 4 for 4 record since moving to the turf for Charlie Appleby after spending a several months racing in the middle east on the dirt. (2) War Like Goddess had a huge victory when she beat the boys in the Turf Classic (G1) in the Belmont at the Big A meeting. Trainer Bill Mott chose the Turf looking for the long distance that she appreciates. She has a past win at Keeneland and was third in the Filly and Mare Turf last year after having the lead. (7) Nations Pride from the barn of Charlie Appleby won twice in New York in the Saratoga Derby (G1) and the Jockey Club Derby (G3). (4) Broome was second in this race last year after having the lead following a poor performance in the Arc in France which is also the case this year.

11^th race – Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) [1 ¼ mi] – (4) Flightline will be the heaviest favorite of the Breeders’ Cup weekend with his remarkable performances in his five starts. Right now, he is considered the best horse in the world. (6) Epicenter is considered the top 3-year-old in the country with his recent wins in the Travers (G1) and the Jim Dandy (G2) that come after his seconds in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Preakness (G1). Three-year-olds have had plenty of success in the Classic in the past 10 years. (1) Taiba has a pair of Grade 1 wins including the Penn Derby and looks like a horse that is on the upswing since getting back to the Baffert barn. (5) Hot Rod Charlie got back to the winner’s circle in the Lukas Classic (G2) and will battle down the stretch as always.

12^th race – [Fall Harvest, 1 mi TURF] - (5) Shantisara hasn’t run since finishing second in a Grade 1 stakes in April but she’s run well off a layoff before and gets the call here. (4) Dalika seeks a third straight win and should be the main rival. (2) Wakanaka exits a Grade 1 stakes and can be a factor in this field. (7) Technical Analysis has enough speed to offset an outside post and make her presence felt.

Saturday @NYHotList Pick 3 Special:
In the Breeders’ Cup races 3 through 5, here is a $3 Pick 3 à 2, 8 with 8 with 5, 6, 7, 9 - that’s a $24 ticket covering the Filly and Mare Sprint, Turf Sprint, and Dirt Mile.