Keeneland Hotlist - April 17

Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday April 17 | Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern

Elkhorn Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Half on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Trainer Mike Maker has become well-known the past few years for winning these kinds of long turf races, and his record at Keeneland particularly bears that out. Maker’s starters have won three of the last six winners of the Elkhorn Stakes, as well as one of the winners in the fall equivalent of this race, the Sycamore Stakes. Maker has three entrants in this race in the form of Cross Border (1), Monarchs Glen (5) and Tide of the Sea (6), and of the trio I fancy Monarchs Glen more than the other two, particularly as I suspect he will go to post at the best odds of the three.

Monarchs Glen (5) won five of 11 races in the U.K. and Dubai before importing to the U.S. in the spring of 2019. He was so well regarded in Europe that in his final start, in the fall of 2018, he ran in the Group 1 ($1.7 million) Qipco Champion Stakes. Unfortunately he won just one of 12 U.S. starts before he was entered into a $75,000 claiming race this January, two races before being claimed by Mike Maker. The fact the horse was claimed for $62,500 out of his most recent start and can earn the winner’s share of $120,000 may be incentive enough to think Maker capable of winning this race again, but recalling 2019 Sycamore winner Marzo was a recent claim before the victory by Maker and that many of Maker’s other stakes winners were acquisitions where he saw something other trainer’s had missed, makes me believe Monarchs Glen can run well although he’s never raced this far. Being by champion Frankel out of Lear Fan mare is the reason I believe this trip is what he wants. Additionally, the 110 Equibase Speed Figure he earned winning last November matching the figures of horses already proven at the level such as Say the Word (111) and Red Knight (114) so he may only need repeat his best effort to post the upset win.

Say the Word (2) won the Northern Dancer Stakes at this 12 furlong turf trip last November, certainly the biggest win of his career to that point. Three races later and after moving to the barn of trainer Phil D’Amato in California, Say the Word once again ran a big race, missing by three-quarters of a length to multiple grade stakes winner United in the San Luis Rey Stakes. With the meet’s leading jockey in Luis Saez getting on and with a career-best 111 Equibase figure from his most recent race to repeat or improve upon, Say the Word would be no surprise if right in the thick of the action on the wire.

Red Knight (10) fits perfectly here with one small exception and that is he hasn’t raced since November. On the other hand, Red Knight finished second of 10 last September in the Kentucky Turf Cup following more than seven months off. Following that effort, Red Knight won the Sycamore Stakes at this distance on the Keeneland turf, earning a very strong 114 figure which would make him competitive here if repeated. Jockey James Graham rode Red Knight in the Sycamore, not before or since, and gets back on so that is a positive sign as well.

Honorable mention goes to Tide of the Sea (6), another horse trained by Mike Maker. Likely to be the early pacesetter, Tide of the Sea used his early speed to win the W. L. McKnight Stakes at Gulfstream Park in wire-to-wire fashion in January. However, not only did that effort yield at 104 figure about seven to 10 points lower than the main contenders above, Epic Bromance (4) is another horse in this field who appears to be a need-the-lead type, so I think Tide of the Sea may not get the easy lead he needs to win. Nevertheless, he could be a part of the exacta and finish second at the very least, just as he’s done in four of 11 lifetime races.

Betting Strategies –

Win bets:

Monarchs Glen (5) can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Say the Word (2) can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Betting two horses in a race to win is also called “dutching” and when doing so the goal should be to earn the same amount of money, so your bets should be proportionately. For example, if Monarchs Glen is 8 to 1 and Say the Word is 4 to 1 near post time, you would wager half as much on Monarchs Glen as you would on Say the Word to achieve the same return no matter which wins.

Exactas (two bets):

Monarchs Glen (5) and Say the Word (2) over Monarchs Glen (5), Say the Word (2), Red Knight (10) and Tide of the Sea (6).

Monarchs Glen (5), Say the Word (2), Red Knight (10) and Tide of the Sea (6) over Monarchs Glen (5) and Say the Word (2).

We win the first bet if #2 or #5 wins and then if #2, #5, #6 or #10 finishes second and we win the second bet if the opposite occurs. We win twice if #2 and #5 finish first and second in any order.