Keeneland Hotlist - October 9

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Friday, October 9, 2020 at Belmont Park
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                           B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2^nd race – (4) Breithorn was claimed for $30,000 two races back by Linda Rice and then moved up to a maiden special weight that ended up on a sloppy track. Now he drops back to that same claiming price where he got a speed figure that tops this field. (3) Southerner was in that same sloppy maiden race that was strangely run. In his debut, he was jostled around and should do better at this level for George Weaver. (8) Pier Forty was claimed three races ago by Orlando Noda and drops down to this claimer. These Noda horses have often been running better than expected. (9) Tri Saint Lorenzo fits well at this level and stretches out to a one-turn mile and will come with generous odds.

3^rd race – (8) Buyer’s Remorse (D) makes her first appearance in a maiden claimer for Doug O’Neill and switches from dirt to turf. She was heavily bet from 14-1 to 6-1 in her last start in July at Belmont Park. As a 2-year-old she made two appearance in stakes races as a maiden in California. (7) Bastet has the right speed figures for this group as she dips into the claiming ranks for the first time, which is a 24% winning move for Bill Mott. (4) Ballerina Showgirl gets blinkers on and goes into a claimer for the first time which are both positive moves for Linda Rice. (2) Sevnteeneightyseven will cutback in distance to turf sprinting where she has been better and is in for tag for the first time.

5^th race – (5) Sanctuary City (C) was last seen in July at Saratoga running second with a late closing move after getting bet down from 21-1 to 16-1 which does not usually happen at those high odds. He is back in a similar NY-bred allowance on the grass. (8) Mr. Kringle has been running second and third against open company in stakes and starter allowances and now returns to state-bred competition where he should get class relief. (9) Quiet Out East won a N3L claimer against open company last time at Belmont. (10) Ancient Times was a debut winner in a front-end effort for Todd Pletcher.

8^th race – (5) First Line moved from a maiden victory at Saratoga to the Jim Dandy (G1) which was too much to ask. Now Noda moves him to a first-level allowance which makes much more sense. (4) Forza Di Oro was last seen in the Remsen (G2) in December for Bill Mott following a maiden victory at Belmont. (8) Mischief Afoot moved from a maiden win at Monmouth Park to an allowance on a sloppy Saratoga track and finished second there. Speed figures in those races fit well here. (3) Adare has moved from California with trainer Neil Drysdale who is now stabled at Belmont Park. He got two big figures in a maiden score and an allowance at Del Mar during the summer.

Best bets:  Breithorn (2^nd); First Line (8^th). Best value:  Buyer’s Remorse (3^rd); Sanctuary City (5^th).