Keeneland Select BONUS Pick of the Day | March 28, 2020

Race 14 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday, March 28 | Post Time 6:36 PM Eastern Time

Curlin Florida Derby – Grade 1 | Purse $750,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

Ete Indien (12) will be my top choice to win this year’s Florida Derby based on three factors. The first is how easily he drew off to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes by eight and one-half lengths at Gulfstream Park on February 29, earning a 106 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. The second is the fact he has excellent early speed but doesn’t appear to be a need-the-lead type, which will allow him to gain excellent forward position from the moment the gate opens. The third reason I think Ete Indien can win is his pattern of workouts is identical to the one trainer Patrick Biancone used prior to the Fountain of Youth, specifically a seven furlong workout on turf in 1:23.2 on March 16 followed by a four furlong breeze in 48.4 on March 25. Although Ete Indien was no match for Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull Stakes prior to the Fountain of Youth, I believe his tactical speed edge may help him hold of his main nemesis in this race.

Tiz the Law (7) earned a career-best and field high 117 Equibase figure winning the Holy Bull Stakes on February 1, a figure I’ve never seen a three year old earn that early in the year. The effort came after two months off and was a huge improvement off the colt’s disappointing third place effort as the favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Prior to that, Tiz the Law won the first two starts of his career including the Champagne Stakes to prove one of the top two year olds in the country. Considering how well Ete Indien ran when winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes four weeks after his finish in the Holy Bull when 11 lengths behind Tiz the Law, we can expect big improvement from Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby. There had been some discussion about a gap in his workouts from February 10 until March 2, but the fact Tiz the Law has put in four consistently spaced workouts since then alleviates those concerns in my opinion.

Gouverneur Morris (5) has upset potential in the Florida Derby. After winning by nine lengths in his debut last September, Gouverneur Morris not only stretched out to two turns for the first time but also moved into stakes company, finishing second of 10 in the Breeders’ Futurity. Rested for more than four months, Gouverneur Morris returned in a two-turn allowance race and rallied from just off the pace to win, earning a 98 figure. Considering logical improvement in his second start as a three year old and off the layoff, Gouverneur Morris must be respected when considering the main win contenders in this year’s Florida Derby.

Honorable mention goes to Independence Hall (9) and Candy Tycoon (10), both coming into the Florida Derby off runner-up finishes in stakes. After victories in the one-turn Nashua Stakes and Jerome Stakes last year, Independence Hall was easily passed by Sole Volante in the Sam F. Davis Stakes but held second and was 11 lengths clear of the third place finisher Ajaaweed (6). It may be Independence Hall is better suited to one turn but it may also be he got a lot out of the experience in his first two-turn race and can run even better in this situation. Candy Tycoon rallied from eighth (of ten) in the early stages of the Fountain of Youth to get second behind runaway eight length winner Ete Indien and should be considered for any exacta and trifecta tickets we play in this race at the very least based on that effort. I’ll also toss in As Seen on Tv (1) who finished a neck behind Candy Tycoon in the Fountain of Youth.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: Ete Indien (12) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

For a smaller amount, bet Gouverneur Morris (5) to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Tix the Law opens at 6 to 5 and those odds are too low for a win bet.

Exactas:

Gouverneur Morris (5), Tiz the Law (7) and Ete Indien (12) over As Seen on Tv (1), Independence Hall (9), Candy Tycoon (10), Gouverneur Morris (5), Tiz the Law (7) and Ete Indien (12).