Keeneland Select Breeders' Cup Pick of the Day | November 5, 2022

Race 10 at Keeneland | Saturday November 5 | Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern

Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade 1 | Purse $4 Million | One Mile and One-Half | Three Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders:

The mare War Like Goddess (2) has a perfect five-for-five record at this mile and one-half distance on turf among her nine-for-12 career record. Looking a bit further, she’s a perfect two-for-two over the Keeneland turf at the distance of this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. Considering three of the last seven editions of this race have been won by females (Found in 2015 and Enable in 2018) there are no concerns about the fact War Like Goddess is facing males for the first time. She enters the race having beaten the other gender in the Turf Classic Invitational at this distance in New York, that race having been used as a springboard to winning this one in 2014 by Main Sequence. The mare has also run consistently well on many levels this year and last, her worse finish (if we can even use that word) when beaten a head for second and a half-length for the win in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, this year being run at the distance of one mile and three-sixteenths, which is obviously the reason Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott opted for this race at the best distance for War Like Goddess.

Nations Pride (7) is the other horse with a big probability to win, sporting another strong record of six wins and two runner-up efforts in nine career starts. The Irish bred came to the U.S. in July with this race in mind, and each of his three North American races has been better than the one which preceded it. He finished second in the Belmont Derby in July and won both the Saratoga Derby and Jockey Club Derby since then. The most recent effort was his first in the states at this 12 furlong trip and he drew clear by six lengths with not only authority, but with gas left in the tank. European based trainer Charles Appleby goes to his #1 rider in William Buick for the race, Buick having ridden Nations Pride to victory in the Saratoga Derby as well as to two of his wins in the U.K. There can be little doubt EVERY horse Appleby starts in a Breeders’ Cup race is to be taken very seriously, especially those ridden by Buick. Going back five years, Appleby has won nine of 19 races when shipping horses from Europe to the U.S., which doesn’t apply to this talented colt. However, when Buick rides for this trainer in these races, they have a formidable record of nine wins in just 15 races, which might go up after Breeders’ Cup weekend has concluded.

No matter how probable War Like Goddess and Nations Pride might seem, I am absolutely going to be making a win, win-place, or win-place-show bet on Nautilus (12) in this race as he opens at 30 to 1 odds. This Brazilian bred colt makes his U.S. debut for trainer Paulo Lobo, who has had his share of longshot winners in graded stakes on turf the past few years, at odds of 14 to 1, 12 to 1 and 8 to 1. Lobo also saddled the third place finisher in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile and the fourth place finisher in that race in 2020. Nautilus has a consistent career record of 6-4-2 in 17 races but it’s his most recent race that intrigues me and gives him a shot to run a lot better than his odds suggest. In the Group 1 Brasil Stakes this past June, in a field of 14 at the same mile and one-half distance of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, Nautilus rallied from 11^th with about three-sixteenths of a mile to run and ran by the field to win by a neck. That was on a left-handed (counter-clockwise) course like the races in North America, and it was his best effort to date. Being a four year old he still may not be fully mature, and having superb American breeding (by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer out of a Point Given mare) there’s a lot to like about this colt who gets top North American jockey Javier Castellano to ride.

Also contenders and worth a look for win bets if the odds are high enough:

Red Knight (10) moved privately to the barn of Mike Maker sometime between his last start of 2021 in August and his 2022 debut in July. He returned to the races as if he had never been away, winning the Colonial Turf Cup then the Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs, beating 10 and 11 other horses, respectively. A few weeks ago in the Sycamore Stakes at this distance and over the Keeneland turf, a race he had won in 2020, Red Knight had to swing EIGHT paths wide into the stretch for room while winner, Highland Chief (13), got a dream run up the rail. Jockey Luis Saez, who has had good success for trainer Mike Maker, opts to ride Red Knight although he hasn’t ridden the horse in two years, getting off Channel Maker (who he rode to two stakes wins this year) and that bods well for this horse running batter than his 20 to 1 odds suggest he will.

Rebel’s Romance (5) hails from the Appleby barn the same as Nations Pride and is no slouch, having won eight of 11 races including four races in a row. All four were at this mile and one-half distance and the last two were Group 1 wins in Germany. Jockey James Doyle rode Rebel’s Romance to one of those wins and gets the mount today. As mentioned previously, Appleby has a strong record in graded stakes in North America, and a subset of that is horses which last raced in Europe, where his record is 9-5-2 in 19 races, which means Rebel’s Romance must be respected as a contender.

Highland Chief (13) won the Sycamore Stakes at this distance on this course three weeks ago, and three races before that won the Grade 1 Man o’War Stakes at this distance in New York. In that race he beat the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, Yibir, as well as multiple graded stakes winner Gufo, so now that he’s back in form and as he’s making his second start following two and one-half months off, another big race may be forthcoming.

For consideration on exacta tickets in the second position and for trifecta tickets in the third position:

Channel Maker (6) is getting up there in years as he’s an eight year old but he won the Elkhorn Stakes this spring at the distance and at Keeneland. He’s earned over $3.5 million while winning nine times, six at this distance, so although his last two efforts when 10^th and fourth (in the Sycamore) were sub-par, his 30 to 1 odds offer interest for an in-the-money finish. Similarly, Mishriff (11) may appear to be off form, with a 0-2-1 record in six races this year. However, all six were in top group 1 company and he was second to the remarkable Baeed in one of them while beaten a neck in another. World-class jockey Frankie Dettori rides and the horse has a shot to be in-the-money but his six to one starting odds are not appealing for a win bet.

Win bets:

Consider win bets on War Like Goddess (2) and on Nations Pride (7) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Additionally, Nautilus (12) can be bet to win, win & place, or win, place & show at odds of 10 to 1 or more.

For the record, Red Knight (10), Rebel’s Romance (5) and Highland Chief (13) can be considered for win bets (or win-place bets) at odds of 8 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

War Like Goddess (2) and Nations Pride (7) over War Like Goddess (2), Nations Pride (7), Nautilus (12), Red Knight (10), Rebel’s Romance (5), Highland Chief (13), Channel Maker (6) and Mishriff (11).