Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - April 10

Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist

Saturday, April 10, 2021

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn Park

Race 12 – The Arkansas Derby is a Kentucky Derby qualifying race that offers points [100-40-20-10] to the top four finishers. (5) Concert Tour is Bob Baffert’s top prospect for this year’s Kentucky Derby. He was an easy winner of the Rebel Stakes (G2) and faces a field here where all but one of them was in the Rebel. Concert Tour went right to the lead and drew off to win easily and did so in a very professional manner in only his third career start. (1) Super Stock was fourth in the Rebel in his 2021 debut after encountering traffic. Last year, he hit the board in four stakes races including a pair of thirds in Kentucky Derby points races. This Steve Asmussen runner should improve in his second start of the year. (3) Hozier was second in the Rebel at 18-1 giving Baffert runners the exacta. There is plenty of speed in this race to set-up his closing run. (2) Caddo River was the favorite in the Rebel but ran a disappointing fifth for Brad Cox. As a confirmed frontrunner he was in trouble when Concert Tour got away to an easy lead. Cox has said that Caddo River will try and be in front in the Arkansas Derby. He will have to deal with Concert Tour for that to happen as they stretch out nine-furlongs. Betting strategy:  Exactas: 5 with 1, 2, 3. Trifecta: 5 with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3, 4.