Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - February 27

Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist
Saturday, Feb. 27, 2021

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $300,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Gulfstream Park

14th race – (8) Greatest Honour needed four starts to break his maiden but since then he’s been a much different horse. He overcame a world of trouble to break his maiden and then was a decisive winner in the Holy Bull in fast time. This looks like another smooth step for him on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. (1) Drain the Clock is a fleet sprinter who is stretching out here. He may not be destined to win at 1 ¼ miles but 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park seems well within his scope. (2) Prime Factor disappointed as the favorite in the Holy Bull but might wake up here. (7) Tarantino was second in the Holy Bull but could be hurt by chasing Drain the Clock in the early stages. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-7-8. Trifectas: 1-8 over 1-2-4-6-7-8 over 1-2-4-6-7-8.

The $750,000 Southwest (G3) – Oaklawn Park 

10th race- The Southwest (G3), which was originally scheduled for Feb. 15, drew a field of seven 3-year-olds including a pair of Grade 1 and a Grade 2 stakes winner that will vie for Kentucky Derby points in the final weekend where the 10-4-2-1 point range is offered. (1) Essential Quality will bring his 3 for 3 unbeaten record, along with his 2020 Eclipse Award as the Champion 2-Year-Old to Oaklawn Park for his 2021 debut. He won his three races in Kentucky beginning with a maiden win at Churchill Downs and then two Grade 1s at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In all three, he raced from off the pace either stalking or using a late run. The Brad Cox trainee increased his speed rating by a significant amount in all three starts. In the Breeders’ Cup he earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure which points to a serious Kentucky Derby contender. With typical growth from the 2 to 3-year-old year, he will be very hard to beat. (4) Jackie’s Warrior makes his first start of the year after winning his first four starts as a 2-year-old including a pair of Grade 1s in New York. He did not get to the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and faded to fourth. Does he have distance limitations or was he a bit tired after four hard victories? The 100 BSF in the mile Champagne (G1) is a measure of his talent. If he is ever going to beat Essential Quality then this is his best chance to do it. (7) Spielberg is the most experienced horse in the field with seven starts with six of them last year including a victory in the Los Al Futurity (G2). The Bob Baffert runner was fourth in Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his 2021 debut. He has run against the upper echelon west coast horses in all of his starts. (6) Woodhouse won his debut at Remington Park going a mile and then got a 90 BSF in a third-place finish in an allowance at Oaklawn earlier in the month. This guy could be getting better and is another late runner. Betting strategy:  Exacta box: 1, 4. Trifecta part-wheel: 1, 4 with 1, 4, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 6, 7.