Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - February 6

Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist

Saturday, Feb. 6, 2021

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $250,000 Withers (G3) – Aqueduct - Race 8

The Withers (G3) drew a field of nine and there appears to be plenty of early speed in the field as these 3-year-olds will have to go nine furlongs, most of them for the first time. (3) Capo Kane won his last two starts by a combined 11 lengths while racing on the front end including in the Jerome at Aqueduct by more than six lengths. He will once again ship up from Parx Racing to seek 10 more Derby qualifying points. It will be interesting to see how much pace pressure he will actually face as these 3-year-olds try to get the distance. (6) Overtook broke his maiden at Aqueduct in his third career start with a closing move for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher kept him in training in New York basically targeting the Withers and the nine-furlong distance for his next start. The $1 million yearling purchase is bred to go long. (5) Risk Taking is very similar in that he was a maiden winner using a late run in his third start for Chad Brown while going long at the Big A. Brown also kept his horse in training at Belmont looking to race again in New York. (9) Eagle Orb was second to the top choice in the Jerome in his first try against open company. He is a stakes winner against state-breds with another place finish behind Brooklyn Strong. Betting strategy:  Exacta key box: 3 with 5, 6, 7, 9.

The $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), Tampa Bay Downs – Race 11 

The Sam F. Davis, which is the first official Kentucky Derby points race of the year at Tampa Bay Downs, drew a full field of twelve 3-year-olds. (3) Known Agenda is a St. Elias Stables home-bred son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin and a Grade 1 winning mare who won more than $600,000 on the track. He was second in his debut behind the talented Highly Motivated and then came back to break his maiden beating the Holy Bull winner Greatest Honour after a lengthy stretch duel. He ran third in the Remsen (G2) on a sloppy track that he clearly did not like. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Sam F. Davis six times and jockey John Velazquez has four victories in this race. (5) Smile Sobotka has been away since November when he ran second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) after having the lead at a couple of different points in that two-turn race at Churchill Downs. Trainer Dale Romans has good stats for runners coming off long layoffs. (8) Nova Rags was a rare debut winner on the dirt for trainer Bill Mott in October at Belmont Park. He was fourth in the one-mile Nashua (G3) at Aqueduct and then with Lasix for the first-time, he drew off to win the Pasco, which is the local prep for the Davis, by almost three-lengths. (1) Hidden Stash broke his maiden at Keeneland in October for trainer Vickie Oliver and came back the following month to win a two-turn allowance at Churchill Downs. He makes his 2021 debut here. Betting strategy:  Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 5, 8, 9, 11. Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 1, 5, 8, 9, 11 with 1, 5, 8, 9, 11.