Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - March 13

Keeneland Select Derby Preps Hotlist
Saturday, March 13, 2021

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Park

11th race – (3) Hozier is the “other” Baffert starter but he may work out a perfect trip here. While his stablemate, Concert Tour, and the favorite, Caddo River, duel on the front end, he should be able to draft behind them and make a winning move. Given his connections, it’s unlikely he’ll go off at his morning-line odds of 12-1, but it should be a better price than you would expect in a race Baffert has won seven times. (7) Concert Tour stretches out to two turns and has more than enough speed to be on or near the lead and prevail, but in this case, with a lively pace, it looks like the only thing Baffert has to fear here is Baffert himself. (6) Keepmeinmind has a late-running style that should be effective here, but it’s his 3-year-old debut and there have been some bumps in the road as far as his training has unfolded. Maybe he’ll need this one. (1) Caddo River comes off a big stakes win earlier in the meet but with his speed from the rail he will be on the lead early and that could make going gate-to-wire here a tough assignment. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta and trifecta box: 1-3-6-7.