Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - March 6

Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hostlist 
Saturday, March 6, 2021

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2), Tampa Bay Downs

11th race – (8) Hidden Stash was third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, the prep for this race, but did not have the best of trips. He closed fast to miss by a little more than a length and can atone for that setback with a victory here. (3) Candy Man Rocket was a sharp winner of the Davis and seems poised for another big effort here. (9) Unbridled Honor rallied nice to post a maiden win over the track and could be a main factor with a lively pace. (7) Moonlite Strike had some traffic issues in the Smarty Jones Stakes and could bounce back here. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7-8-9. Trifectas: 3-8-9 over 3-7-8-9-11 over 3-7-8-9-11.

The $300,000 Gotham (G3), Aqueduct

9th race   – The Gotham is a Kentucky Derby qualifying race that offers points [50-20-10-5] to the top four finishers.  (5) Crowded Trade (A) got off to a slow start in his debut for Chad Brown where he was an even money favorite. He rallied from last to first to get up in final yards to ultimately win by a length. A hot pace is expected in this one-turn mile which should serve him well as he tries to move from a maiden win to the Derby trail. (1) Atlantic Road (C) was bet down to be the 7-5 favorite in his second career start. Going seven furlongs, the Todd Pletcher runner led the entire race by a head beating a horse who came back to win his next start. (3) Highly Motivated makes his 2021 debut in the Gotham after a promising 2-year-old campaign that included a victory in the Nyquist with a late rally on a Keeneland track that was favoring horses on the front end. He will be very hard to beat with the anticipated pace scenario and Brown excels at having horses ready following long layoffs. (7) Freedom Fighter ships east from California for Bob Baffert. He won his debut at Del Mar in the summer and then was second in the San Vicente (G2) behind his highly touted stablemate Concert Tour. He is the most dangerous speed horse in the field. Betting strategy:  Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 5, 7. Trifecta part-wheel: 3, 5 with 3, 4, 5, 7 with 1, 4, 5, 6, 7.

The $250,000 San Felipe (G3), Santa Anita Park

6th Race -  The San Felipe is also a [50-20-10-5] points qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby. (3) Medina Spirit is part of a large group of formidable Derby contenders from the barn of Bob Baffert. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez will ride Medina Spirit for the first time. Last out he won the Robert B. Lewis (G3) with a determined stretch drive where twice he looked beaten. Before that, he was closing quickly in the Sham (G3) which was won by his stablemate Life is Good. (1) Life is Good has been off since he beat Medina Spirit. The son of Into Mischief now has a 2 for 2 record while leading at every call in both races. He will have to go 1 1/6 miles now and is likely to face some pace pressure, but he may just be too good for this field. He will be a heavy favorite as the horse that many believe will be the Kentucky Derby winner. (7) Roman Centurian was a late running second in the blanket finish of the top three in the Robert B. Lewis. He will get a great set-up for that closing move. (2) Dream Shake was an impressive winner of his debut last month at Santa Anita with a rally from behind that resulted in an almost five length victory and a big speed figure. He beat a highly regarded Baffert first-time starter in that race. Betting strategy:  Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 2, 5, 7.