Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlists - March 5, 2022

The Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist

March 5, 2022

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Gulfstream Park, Race 12

12th race – (9) High Oak won his first two starts impressively then disappointed in the Hopeful. Was given time off after that and is training for his 3-year-old debut in a manner that indicates he could be ready for a big effort. (8) Emmanuel tries stakes company for the first time and has the kind of speed and stamina that works out well over this surface. (2) Simplification rallied for second in the Holy Bull and cannot be ignored here. (4) In Due Time comes off a big allowance win and seems ready to step up into stakes competition. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta and trifecta box: 2-4-8-9.

The $125,000 John Battaglia Memorial, Turfway Park, Race 5

5th race – (11) Bloodline is coming off a game second in his turf debut. If he makes a smooth transition to a synthetic track, he will be a highly attractive option in this race. (10) Tiz the Bomb fizzled on dirt in the Holy Bull, but, based on his results on turf, should perk up here. (8) Erase is coming off a frontrunning stakes win at the meet and looks like the one they will have to catch. (4) Stolen Base has a nice late kick and should be a threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta and trifecta box: 4-8-10-11.

The $300,000 Gotham (G3), Aqueduct, Race 9

9th race - The Gotham is a [50-20-10-5] points qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby. (9) Morello won the first two races of his career, both at Aqueduct and both by open-lengths. The Steve Asmussen runner moved from six to seven furlongs in those victories and has been based in New York all winter long. He looks to get an ideal set-up for his late running style with lots of speed horses in the 10 horse field. (5) Dean’s List is the best of the front running horses in the field. This Todd Pletcher runner is also 2 for 2 in his career with a pair of fast sprint victories in Florida. Pletcher will find out in the one-turn mile of the Gotham just how far Dean’s List can carry his speed. (2) Glider will ship north from Florida and bring a jockey with him. This Mark Casse trainee broke his maiden in a race that came off the turf and then finished second behind the highly regarded Emmanuel who may be the favorite in the Fountain of Youth. He also has a chance to come running late. (1) Runninsonofagun is a live longshot with a late running style that could sneak into the exotics. He was claimed from his first two starts and then won a starter allowance for veteran trainer John Toscano. Betting strategy:  Exacta box: 1, 2, 5, 9. Trifecta box: 1, 2, 5, 9.

The $400,000 San Felipe (G2), Santa Anita Park, Race 6

6th race - The San Felipe is also a [50-20-10-5] points qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby. (7) Cabo Spirit was far behind Messier in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) last month, but he was also seven lengths ahead of the rest of the field. Before that he had four starts on the turf that included a maiden and a stakes win. (6) Forbidden Kingdom made his first start of the year in the San Vicente (G2) where he was a winner on the lead by more than two lengths going seven furlongs. He will have to stretch out to two-turns for the first time for trainer Richard Mandella. (5) Doppelganger was a debut winner for Bob Baffert at Los Alamitos in December. He then finished fourth in the San Vicente. He, too, will run a distance of ground for the first time. (3) Armagnac is another Baffert runner. He broke his maiden in his second start going two-turns at Santa Anita while racing on the lead. Betting strategy:  Exacta key box: 7 with 3, 5, 6.