Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 11, 2020

Race 9 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday, April 11 | Post Time 5:43 PM Eastern Time

Oaklawn Mile Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile | Four Year Olds and Upward

Pioneer Spirit (4) is one tough racehorse, now with 10 wins in 24 career starts on dirt. Two of those came at Oaklawn including the Fifth Season Stakes in January at odds of 5 to 2. He opens at 6 to 1 today and because a trio of horses at lower odds have question marks. One of them is Improbable (14), who has nowhere near the win probability suggested by 7 to 2 morning line odds because he draws the extreme outside 14 post, because he’s been off for five months and because even his best effort can’t beat many of these. Another is Mr. Money (2), who opens at 4 to 1, which would be fine if his last race was in the past month or two. It’s not, as his last start was in November when seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. There’s no doubt he’s this good, if he had a prep race, but he finished seventh in his 2019 debut (also in a route) and it is a very tough task to come back and run big against many of these after that much time off. The last of the three suspect favorites, although not nearly as suspect, is Tom’s d’Etat (3), who can win if he runs his best and opens at 3 to 1 but hasn’t been seen in more than four months. On the other hand, Pioneer Spirit has run well in two starts since his January 25 win. He was beaten a head for third in the Razorback Handicap in mid-February then led into the stretch after dueling for the lead for the previous six furlongs in the Essex Handicap, ending up a half-length from the runner-up at the wire. Likely to be in third early from a good inside post behind need-the-lead types Home Run Trick (9) and Kershaw (12), Pioneer Spirit has none of the question marks of many of these and if the race goes as I think can post the mild upset to win

Even though I like Pioneer Spirit quite a bit as a contender and a horse to bet to win, there are two more, at much higher odds, we must pay attention to. Bankit (8) is one and Lord Guiness (11) is the other. Bankit has been first or second in nine of 17 career races, nearly 50% of the time, including back-to-back defeats by a head in the Fifth Season and in the Razorback at the meeting. He was 4 to 1 and 9 to 2 in those two races then when well-regarded at 5 to 2 in the Essex Handicap he ran last of seven. I’ll draw a line through that race because, opening at 15/1, a repeat of either of his previous two starts at Oaklawn, both under Santana (who rides back), make him a contender. Lord Guiness is kind of a horse who may be missed by bettors because there are so many other familiar names. He opens at 30/1 but that is a bit out of line because he has a big shot to improve off his 2020 debut in February which came after nine months off. His race before the layoff was a pip as he earned a stakes quality figure at Santa Anita. Then, in the 2/20 comeback he rallied late to miss by a head. As such I think he’s pretty sneaky here and will be betting a couple of bucks to win, place and show at likely very high odds so as not to be kicking myself late.

Tom’s d’Etat (3), as previously mentioned, may be a bit suspect but not nearly as much as Improbable and Mr. Money. The last time he returned from a layoff he finished second to McKinzie in the Alysheba Stakes, not a disgrace at all, before a decent third in the Stephen foster. He closed out his 2019 campaign with wins in the Fayette and Clark and Rosario is four-for-four on the horse in his career. I note a gap in the works for the comeback between 2/14 and 2/29 but then again Al Stall, Jr. is a fine trainer and I’m sure he has the horse fit to run an “A” effort good enough to win.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: Pioneer Spirit (4) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

For a smaller amount, Bankit (8) at odds of 5 to 1 or more, and Lord Guiness (11) at odds of 8 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Pioneer Spirit (4), Tom’s d’Etat (3), Bankit (8) and Lord Guiness (11).

Box Pioneer Spirit and Tom’s d’Etat again.

Play Pioneer Spirit and Tom’s d’Etat over Pioneer Spirit, Tom’s D’Etat, Bankit and Lord Guiness.

Optional Trifecta:

Pioneer Spirit (4), Tom’s d’Etat (3), Bankit (8) and Lord Guiness (11) over Pioneer Spirit (4), Tom’s d’Etat (3), Bankit (8) and Lord Guiness (11) over Pioneer Spirit (4), Tom’s d’Etat (3), Bankit (8), Lord Guiness (11), Snapper Sinclair (7), Fight On (13) and Improbable (14).