Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 16, 2022

Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday April 16 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Stonestreet Lexington Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Last week, Just One Time rewarded us nicely on this page in the Madison Stakes and I’m expecting another horse similarly named to do the same in this year’s Stonestreet Lexington Stakes. That horse is In Due Time (2), who enters the race off a fine runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month. He won his debut sprinting last July then was off for five and one-half months until returning, once more in a sprint, this past January. Stretching out to a mile, In Due Time easily won by more than five lengths, earning a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure (a number enabling us to compare how fast horses ran at different tracks) and then was flattered when both the third and fourth finishers won their subsequent starts. Stepped up into graded stakes company for the Fountain of Youth, In Due Time was seventh of 11 after three-quarters of a mile had been run but rallied nicely for second although he had no shot to catch winner Simplification. His sire, Not this Time, is the sire of the Road to the Derby points leaders in Epicenter, so there’s little doubt In Due Time has the class to succeed at this level. The Fountain of Youth was his first try around two-turns and with a good inside post and jockey Paco Lopez riding once again I expect In Due Time to improve once again and that should be good enough to win this year’s Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, possibly propelling him into a spot in the Kentucky Derby as he has 20 points to date and can earn 20 more winning this race.

We All See It (3) earned his first win in his third career start, last November, at a mile around two-turns and did so professionally when drawing off to an 11 length martin. His next two races were good but not good enough as he finished third, then second. Following a seventh place finish with no noticeable excuse, We All See It rebounded to run the best race of his career last month and at the distance of the Lexington Stakes, earning a 94 figure. What is notable about that effort is We All See It had to battle head-and-head with two other horses on the far turn, then with the eventual runner-up down the length of the stretch, before prevailing by a head. That kind of mental toughness bodes well for this horse today, particularly as he enters the race off the second best last race Equibase figure in the field, 94. Note the best last race figure in the field, 100, belongs to Tawny Port (102), earned when second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. That effort may not be repeatable on a conventional dirt track like Keeneland’s so that is why We All See It is the second most likely contender to win this race.

Call Me Midnight (11) gets the extreme outside post but that won’t be a disadvantage as it might be for many horses, for two reasons. The first is this mile and one-sixteenth distance at Keeneland starts at the first of two finish lines so there is more room to get closer to the rail before the first turn than other two-turn races, and second because the colt likes to come from far back, so would be dropping back before the first turn anyway. One race before last, Call Me Midnight posted the huge upset at 28 to 1 to win the Lecomte Stakes and earn points on the Road to the Derby. He earned a career best 98 figure in the process, which if repeated puts him strongly in the top group of contenders in this field. Following that, Call Me Midnight finished sixth of nine in the Louisiana Derby, but he had broken slowly and found himself 13 lengths behind after a half-mile had been run, then was nine paths wide on the far turn and ran much farther than other horses in the race. Jockey Graham had been aboard for both wins, both times he had ridden Call Me Midnight, prior to the Louisiana Derby, and the colt cuts back to the distance of the Lecomte so those are reasons to give him a look as a contender in this race. Additionally, trainer Keith Desormeaux won the 2018 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes with My Boy Jack, who also had made his last start in the Louisiana Derby prior to winning this race.

For second on exacta tickets, and for third on trifecta tickets, I will also consider Skate to Heaven (6), Strava (8) and Tawny Port (9). These three appear just a cut below the three main contenders but have run races recently, which if repeated could help them be second or third in this race.

Win bets:

In Due Time (2) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

You can consider win bets on We All See It (3) and on Call Me Midnight (11) at odds of 4 to 1 or more, but for smaller amounts as compared to In Due Time.

Exacta:

Box In Due Time (2), We All See It (3) and Call Me Midnight (11).

In Due Time (2), We All See It (3) and Call Me Midnight (11) over In Due Time (2), We All See It (3), Call Me Midnight (11), Skate to Heaven (6), Strava (8) and Tawny Port (9).

(At the $1 minimum threshold, the cost of this bet is $15)

Trifecta:

In Due Time (2), We All See It (3) and Call Me Midnight (11) over In Due Time (2), We All See It (3), Call Me Midnight (11), Skate to Heaven (6), Strava (8) and Tawny Port (9) over In Due Time (2), We All See It (3), Call Me Midnight (11), Skate to Heaven (6), Strava (8) and Tawny Port (9).

(At the $0.50 minimum threshold for the trifecta, the cost of this bet is $30)