Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 2, 2022

Race 12 at Turfway Park | Saturday April 2 | Post Time 6:23 PM Eastern

Jeff Ruby Steaks – Grade 3 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

Four weeks ago in the precursor to this race, the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, Tiz the Bomb (7) prevailed by a neck over Stolen Base (3). Although 10 new shooters emerge for this race, the result may be no different because both colts are making their third starts off layoffs since last year and continue to improve. That’s not to say there’s no profit opportunity in the field as there will be quite a few horses going off at odds of 10/1 or more which can have a say in the outcome and make for profitable exotic wagers.

Stolen Base (2) will get slight preference over Tiz the Bomb (7) this time around, he adds blinkers. Whereas Tiz the Bomb made a nice move on the turn to go from fourth to a neck in front with an eighth of a mile to run, Stolen Base was making up ground with every stride in the final yards. The extra eighth of a mile as well as new blinkers to perhaps help him to race closer in the early stages are two reasons I think he can turn the tables on Tiz the Bomb. Tiz the Bomb had a stellar two year old campaign culminating with a 12^th to second rally in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He tried dirt for his three year old debut and only proved he hated it when seventh, but on the all-weather surface for the first time last month Tiz the Bomb returned to his top turf form from last year. With two strong workouts since raced he should run well and we will absolutely use him on exacta and trifecta tickets played but he will be a poor win bet anywhere near his 2 to 1 starting odds.

Next we have two horses with potential in Tawny Port (5) and Blackadder (12). Tawny Port showed a LOT of promise first time out winning at a mile at Turfway Park, a very tough question to ask a first time starter. He rallied from 11^th of 12 to do that and showed it to be no fluke when coming back five weeks later to win again. Like Tiz the Bomb, he tried dirt last out (in the Risen Star Stakes) and it only proved he doesn’t like the surface. He’s worked very well since then and with continued improvement since his January 7 local win he could post the mild upset, opening at 6 to 1. Blackadder opens at 15/1 which is odd considering he is the ONLY horse in the field to have won on all-weather at this nine furlong trip. He rallied from seventh to win the El Camino Real Derby in February, his second win in a row around two turns, and he continues to improve. He is one of the recently transferred horses from the Baffert barn so he can earn Road to the Derby points here when previously he could not.

For the trifecta, I’ll toss in Rich Strike (4), Red Run (8) and Constitutionlawyer (11), the latter opening at 50 to 1. Rich Strike rallied from 11^th to fourth in the Battaglia and was just a half-length from third, so has a shot to pass a lot of horses in the late stages. Red Rum won the Texas Turf Mile Stakes at the end of January and is bred to run on this surface BUT Asmussen has a low 1 for 44 record over the last five years in all-weather routes. Constitutionlawyer broke his maiden at this nine furlong trip on dirt rather easily one before last in New York then ran 11^th in the Withers. His dam produced an all-weather winner and his sire (Constitution) has had a LOT of nine furlong stakes winners as three year olds the past few years, such as Tiz the Law, so he cannot be totally counted out. I will probably make a token $2 across the board on him so as not to be kicking myself late if something happens and he wins and pays $100.   

Win bets:

Stolen Base (2) should be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Tawny Port (5) should be bet to win at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Blackadder (12) can be considered for a win bet at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

A win/place bet for at least a token amount like $2 may be considered for Constitutionlawyer (11) at odds of 15 to 1 or higher.

Trifectas: (which are preferred over exactas since the top key horses are low odds)

Stolen Base (2) over Tawny Port (5), Tiz the Bomb (7) and Blackadder (12) over Rich Strike (4), Tawny Port (5), Tiz the Bomb (7), Red Run (8), Constitutionlawyer (11) and Blackadder (12).

Tiz the Bomb (7) over Stolen Base (2), Tawny Port (5), and Blackadder (12) over Rich Strike (4), Tawny Port (5), Tiz the Bomb (7), Red Run (8), Constitutionlawyer (11) and Blackadder (12).

Exactas: (just $1 or $2 is okay here)

Tawny Port (5) and Blackadder (12) over Rich Strike (4), Tawny Port (5), Blackadder (12), Stolen Base (2), Red Run (8), Constitutionlawyer (11) and Tiz the Bomb (7). (This is to take advantage of the higher odds on Tawny Port and Blackadder)